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Clayton Cramer's BLOG |
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Clayton's commentary on news and events of the day. Broadly speaking, I'm a conservative with libertarian sympathies (getting more conservative as my children get older).
 Never forget! I ran for Idaho state senate in 2008--didn't win I've written a number of history books, as well as scholarly and popular articles, (see my web page).
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Friday, December 02, 2005
You Can Have My Cell Phone... When you pry it from my cold dead fingers: SHANGHAI, China (AP) - China will soon require all mobile phone users to register with telecom providers or face a cutoff in service, state media reported Friday.I am so suprised. More Evidence That There Should Be a Hunting Season... For ambulance chasers. Maybe all year. Todd Zywicki over at Volokh Conspiracy discuses the lawyers looking for clients on whose behalf they will sue soft drink makers for creating an "attractive nuisance": The Washington Post reports that the long-anticipated lawsuit against soft drink manufacturers for contributing to children's obesity is expected to be filed in the near future.The comments include an attempt by someone to remind us all that while this might be an abuse, there are legitimate needs for these sort of lawsuits: To Steve:My response to that comment was simple: I thought lawyers preferred wool or synthetics. Or is that they better get used to wearing asbestos suits after they lose their Final Appeal? There's A Sucker Born Every Minute Why does this read like a subplot in a Woody Allen movie from when he made funny movies? Someone is selling what Different River is calling environmental indulgences--you know, like what the Catholic Church did that caused Luther to start Protestantism: A few months ago, I posted this story about a company that sells “Car/SUV guilt reduction” – that is, for $30-$80 depending on vehicle type, they will sell you a bumper sticker and claim they are using the money to offset your car’s pollution. After expenses, of course, which no doubt includes a salary for whoever thought this thing up – and a target profit margin that exceeds that of the oil companies.It is a great scam. I wish that I had thought of it: separating rich environmentalists from their money. Just think what the price of a TerraPass for Laurie David's Gulfstream jet would cost! The Death Penalty And Innocence There's a very interesting article here about the death penalty. There is a very long and I found rather uninteresting discussion trying to show that the death penalty, at least as it is applied in the United States since 1976 really isn't a particularly serious human rights violation, because of how carefully questions of guilt are handled through what the author calls "super due process." He does make a very valid point--that a person sentenced to death is far more likely to get his freedom as a result of the very thorough appeals process than a person sentenced to life in prison: As pro-death penalty activist Dudley Sharp points out, because of the massive effort spent reviewing capital cases a convicted murderer who is actually innocent is more likely to be set free if he is sentenced to death than if he is merely sentenced to life in prison....Now, on the question of how many truly innocent people have been executed, this article points out that some of the claims on this overstate reality. Certainly, there has been an enormous improvement since 1976 in how accurately capital punishment is meted out in the United States. One aspect of the liberal opposition to capital punishment that has long bothered me that Bilges examines in great detail is that many of those supposedly "innocent" persons sentenced to death, whose sentences were overturned on appeal or later retrial, is that many were not necessarily innocent: The DPIC List is most commonly criticized for intentionally confusing de facto and de jure innocence. Campbell's case-by-case critique shows that that 68 of the 102 defendants on the list as of 2000 are either not definitively innocent or were included on the list despite being convicted before the 1976 reforms. He argues that there is strong evidence of actual guilt in many of the DPIC cases. In many of these cases the original conviction was overturned on appeal, and the defendant was not re-convicted only because evidence presented at the original trial was disallowed at subsequent trials; or prosecutors elected not to retry the case; or key witnesses were no longer available to testify.There's a long list of cases where the best that you can say, "Boy, someone did a lousy job, but it is hard to say with any certainty that this guy wasn't guilty." Let me explain that at an intellectual level, I can approve of a system that puts enormous energy into making sure that a person convicted of a capital crime actually did it. That, to me, is the fundamental issue. If a person sentenced to death admits either at trial or after trial that he committed the crime, I can't see a strong argument against execution. If the evidence is overwhelmingly clear--two eyewitnesses to the crime, and no reason to doubt them--I can't see a strong argument against execution. At an emotional level, capital punishment, makes my blood run cold. This morning I watched some tape of the mother of the little girl who was kidnapped, raped, and murdered down in Florida. That mother is filled with rage. She wants the monster who did this to her little girl executed, and she wants it now. Her emotions are completely understandable, and certainly, this monster should never have been out on the street, and he should never be out on the street again. I just want to make really sure that a person who gets executed for a crime really did it. The Evil That Bush's Iraq Policy Causes The United Arab Emirates is announcing elections--a first time for that nation--and women will be allowed to vote. Okay, it isn't going to be quite as powerful or important as Congress, but it is a step towards representative government--something that would have been unthinkable before the invasion of Iraq. Democracy is spreading, because of Bush's policies. Isn't it amazing how many liberals and progressives are treating it like a virus? I've heard too many people, not for attribution, claim that democracy is a Western idea, and won't work in the Middle East. Why? Wrong skin color? More News About Waco Seeps Out My friend David Hardy is an attorney--and some of his work played a major role in blowing holes in the FBI's claim that they never used incendiary rounds at Waco. He is still filing Freedom of Information Act suits, and there are still bizarre, sometimes downright comical pieces of information seeping out about the 1993 raid--stuff that would be funny, if more than 80 people hadn't died: Just thought I'd mention that I have a raher large webpage on the subject, based on three years of Freedom of Information Act suits to get information relating to it.Far less comical--but unsurprising--is the attempts to get videos of the raid: On prying for the Feb. 28 videos ... after literally years of courtroom work, here are the results from the ground-based cameras:If this seems implausible, let me point out that we have proof that the Treasury Department wanted to prevent evidence from being created: Rep. Barr emphasized the fact that we've heard a "great deal about taint," and he had the documents to prove it today. Barr displayed big blow-ups of a Treasury Department inter-office memo that placed serious constraints on the investigation into the Waco incidents.My wife and I sat up and watched those hearings on C-SPAN. This was about the most damning evidence of intentional coverup that I could imagine--telling them to stop taking written statements because it might be used by the defense. Someone Ordered Too Much of One Of Those Enlargement Drugs? I'm just being playful: The Obelisk of Buenos Aires is covered with a giant condom to commemorate World AIDS Day December 1, 2005. Boise Housing Prices The Idaho Statesman has an article today discussing Boise's continuing "torrid" housing appreciation. Why, at this rate, in another century it will be like California housing! (I'm exaggerating, of course.) Idaho's housing appreciation rate outpaced the national average in the third quarter of 2005, making it harder to buy a home and increasing the property tax burden on existing homeowners.Yup! When we moved here on the last day of 2001, housing was breathtakingly cheap--even in what could be considered very tony neighborhoods, like ours. Now, I see houses like this one, on about the same size parcel of land as ours (0.27 acres vs. 0.25 acres), just a little larger (2868 sq. ft. vs. 2755 sq. ft.). It has a pool as a big distinguisher, but it is only a couple of blocks over--and they are asking $405,000 for it. Based on some of the recent sales in our subdivision, this only seems slightly high. A reader insists that this housing appreciation has to stop soon because almost no one here can afford a home. He told me that the median household income here was only $29,000; there are almost no jobs outside the $6 to $12 per hour range; half of all marriages end in divorce here. It seemed a rather too dark picture of this area, because I knew that our particular zipcode had a median household income of about $75,000 a year, so I started digging. Ada County median household income: $49,775--or 95th highest in the country. Marriage is a surprisingly healthy institution here, probably because there's a lot of Christians and Mormons here. The divorce rate for those age 15 or over is 12.2%. (I am going to guess that very few people under 15 get divorced.) Thursday, December 01, 2005
Almost Like Cops But without the catchy theme song. I happened to wander into the Ada County Sheriff's Department web site. (Ada County is where Boise is located; Boise County is just north of Ada County--and Boise is not in Boise County.) I was startled to find all the arrests listed online, with the charges, mug shots, and when the arrestees are to appear in court. This not being a very violent community, most of the arrests are substance abuse related--DUI; marijuana possession, and similar. Most of the mug shots give the impression of people who are a bit down on their luck, and certainly more objects of pity than fear. Except for one picture, of a guy named Darren Ray Rowan (there's no direct link, but he was booked November 30 at 11:55 PM), arrested for Aggravated Battery, Violation of a No Contact Order, and Injury to Children. His mug shot makes him look like a pretty nasty character--and the bandage on his face suggests that he might not have ended up at the police station without incident. House Project: Appliances Going In I was actually up there yesterday, but I've been so busy yesterday and today, what with patent forms, X-rays, getting stuck in the snow.... When I got up there yesterday, the builder's son had just installed the wall oven, and was working on the microwave oven's position.  Click to enlarge  Click to enlarge Wall switches are in for most rooms:  Click to enlarge But there's a few places where it appears the electrician was kidnapped part-way through the job!  Click to enlarge I had mentioned the problem of how to surround the jetted tub--while still having a way to get access to the various moving parts inside. One reader's suggestion worked out rather well. (The wood still needs to be cleaned.) One screw holds the whole thing together, rather like a clever puzzle.  Click to enlarge The dishwasher is still out in the garage, as are the washer and dryer. (The cooktop has been mysterious in its movements, and the trash compactor was delayed by snow.)  Click to enlarge There's a downside to snow, of course--but look at this view from my back porch!  Click to enlarge Last house project entry. Labels: house project I Think The ACLU Is Evil, But I Don't Think This Is True I was just forwarded an email from a social conservative group called GrassFire.net that makes a claim that I find very, very hard to believe: The Salvation Army bell ringers are absent this year because the ACLU threatened many of the large retail stores. Rather than confront the giant, stores like Target, Barnes & Noble, Toys "R" Us, Kohl's and others have decided it's easier to turn away the bell ringers this Christmas!Yeah, like the ACLU cares what Christians think. This sounds like a waste of money and time. But here's the larger question: has the ACLU taken any legal steps to get retail chains to drop the word "Christmas" from their advertising campaigns, or to prohibit the Salvation Army from raising funds outside the temples of American materialism? I can't imagine any legal basis for a suit like that, and I would like to think that if the ACLU tried something like that, much of the rest of the conservative establishment would be piling on to pillory the ACLU for their hypocrisy--flag burning is free speech, but not the dreaded Christ-word. So, is there anyone that knows of any legal actions that the ACLU has filed that might, conceivably, have been misunderstood by national chains as encouraging them to remove Christmas from their advertising? I find this incredibly hard to believe. Understanding The Core Problem Is The First Step I've been struggling with a big pain problem in my left ankle for about a year, although the problem has been chronic since about 1994. The highly touted physical therapy experts here in Boise took me from having a pain problem in my left ankle if I walked for a couple of miles to the stage where I could no longer walk for a couple of blocks. Eventually, I ended up with a physical therapist at Howell Physical Therapy who started out by measuring my legs--and noticed something that several physical therapists, and two podiatrists seemed to have missed: my left leg is 1.5 centimeters longer than my right leg. Unsurprisingly, this puts considerable greater stress on my left foot and ankle. Anyway, just to make sure that we weren't wasting everyone's time, the physical therapist asked my doctor to get some foot and ankle X-rays to see if my slow recovery is arthritis-related. There does seem to be mild to moderate arthritis in the left foot--but not the right. It makes you wonder if this could have been avoided had someone correctly identified the underlying problem--too long of a left leg--more than ten years ago. Insulting My Corvette Prematurely; I'm A Celebrity! I was complaining yesterday about my Corvette getting stuck on the road leading to my new house, and my concern that I might have to buy a 4WD for at least the winter months. (No, not a new one--one three steps up from beater class.) As I was trying to get out of the parking lot at Treasure Valley Closets today (who are doing the closet organizers and massive bookshelf for the new house), I suddenly remembered that part of the problem is that the Corvette has traction control. Traction control is a way of reducing tire spin when juvenily accelerating away from a stoplight. (I'm past that stage, of course.) It senses when one or both tires is beginning to slip, and reduces power to the wheels. This makes lots of sense on pavement, because even the weak and slow version of the Corvette that I have has enough power to spin these massive rear tires without even trying. It is also a good idea on wet and slippery pavement once you are under way. Getting going on snow and ice, however, is another matter. You are going to get some slip, especially on ice--and even if one wheel gets traction, the other doesn't, and the traction control stops both of them from turning--so no motion. Turning off traction control lets at least the wheel that is grabbing something actually get you moving--although you need to exercise some care about this. If one wheel gets traction and the other is just spinning, you can very easily make a high speed circle, going in all sorts of unexpected directions. The other surprise was sitting at lunch with my wife and a friend of hers, and having a complete stranger walk over to our table and introduce himself. "I read your blog." He saw me, thought it was me, and used the Corvette in the parking lot as confirmation. Responsible Democrats I've been careful in my blog entries to distinguish between the small number of Democrats who are engaged in purely partisan politics about Iraq, and those who are not. There are some Democrats who opposed this war from the beginning for all sorts of absurd reasons, but they seem to be sincere. For many, the Vietnam War has left deep scars that makes all U.S. military operations abroad intrinsically suspect. There are other Democrats--including, it seems, most of those who sit in Congress--who supported the Iraq War from the beginning, and while they may have misgivings about how the war has been fought (and I share some of those concerns), they know better than to cut and run. Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) is not one of my favorite Congresscritters--especially because of his support for every absurd gun control measure that comes along. But I am pleased as I can be with articles like this one that he recently wrote for the Wall Street Journal, worth reading in full: I have just returned from my fourth trip to Iraq in the past 17 months and can report real progress there. More work needs to be done, of course, but the Iraqi people are in reach of a watershed transformation from the primitive, killing tyranny of Saddam to modern, self-governing, self-securing nationhood--unless the great American military that has given them and us this unexpected opportunity is prematurely withdrawn.Most importantly: While U.S. public opinion polls show serious declines in support for the war and increasing pessimism about how it will end, polls conducted by Iraqis for Iraqi universities show increasing optimism. Two-thirds say they are better off than they were under Saddam, and a resounding 82% are confident their lives in Iraq will be better a year from now than they are today. What a colossal mistake it would be for America's bipartisan political leadership to choose this moment in history to lose its will and, in the famous phrase, to seize defeat from the jaws of the coming victory.Unfortunately, the coalition of convenience between those who fundamentally hate America and those who see an opportunity to gain political advantage from opposing the war is in danger of causing us to take a course of action that will give us maximum cost (in lives, money, prestige) with minimum gain. They're Just Kids--Aren't They? A liberal friend of mine was upset because some 10 year olds were arrested for falsely claiming to their classmates that they had brought marijuana to school. (It was actually parsley.) Yeah, a bit of an overreaction, but it is amazing what "kids" are capable of these days: ORLANDO, Fla. -- Orlando police are searching for three people, including an 11-year-old, accused of kidnapping two women at gunpoint and raping them in a field, Local 6 News has learned. Bush Receives Jury Summons I recall that something similar happened with Governor Jerry Brown some years ago--and he served on jury duty in Sacramento County! Admittedly, Bush has somewhat higher responsibilities: While most would agree that serving as president of the United States is more pressing than serving as foreman of a jury, McLennan County officials are waiting for Crawford resident George W. Bush, potential juror number 286, to respond to a summons to report Monday for jury duty. Corvettes & Snow I drove up to the new house yesterday to meet with a closet organizer subcontractor--or rather, I tried to drive up to it. Highway 55 is kept reasonably clear. Summit Ridge Road, in spite of the "limited maintenance" signs, was clear of snow. Shortly after I turned onto Sunburst Lane, I reached a spot of ice that prevented the Corvette from proceeding. The snow wasn't deep enough to be a problem--it is just that one little stretch had turned to ice, and I simply could not get enough traction to move forward on it. Four wheel drive tends to be overestimated in the popular imagination for its ability to handle snow, but this is definitely one of those situations where it would have done a lot of good. My front wheels were on snow--if those had been driven, I would have had no difficulty getting past the icy patch. I really don't want to give up my Corvette--for nine months of the year here, it is a wonderful car. But I am beginning to think that I will need to buy a used 4WD truck or vehicle to get back and forth to the new house--and it wouldn't be a bad idea down in Boise on a day like today. This is our first really serious snowfall (although you Michiganders would laugh at it, I think), and I drove to work at an average speed of about eight miles per hour! Wednesday, November 30, 2005
Levitt's Claims About Lott's Research I mentioned a couple of days ago questions raised concerning Donohue and Levitt's claims concerning a link between abortion and crime. One of my readers who is a professor (and no, not Dr. Lott)--and who needs to remain anonymous, because he knows how committed to truth the academic community is, told me this: Levitt (Freakonomics, pp. 133-4) writes of Lott, "There was the troubling allegation that Lott actually invented some of the survey data that support his more-guns/less-crime theory. Regardless of whether the data were faked, Lott's admittedly intriguing hypothesis doesn't seem to be true."UPDATE: The original had "Lott" where it should have had "Levitt." Labels: abortion If Only... This is a troubling story. I wouldn't call this an argument for drawing a gun too quickly. I would call this a story that shows what sort of person gets a permit to carry a gun--a person who is decent and humane, and because of that, he hesitated: Brendan “Dan” McKown said Monday that he briefly drew his gun on Tacoma Mall shooting suspect Dominick S. Maldonado, but he’s not sure Maldonado saw it.Gun control advocates like to portray concealed carry holders as either wannabe cops or bloodthirsty Walter Mitty types, looking for a chance to shoot someone. I've twice been in situations where I had to decide whether to draw a gun and shoot someone. In one case, I wasn't sure if this was a real robbery, or a stupid stunt by a bunch of drunk college students. (I still don't know--but they drove away in a hurry when my wife and I dove into the bushes, and I reached into a fanny pack.) I prepared to draw and fire, but did not do so until I was more sure of whether this was a robbery or not. In the other case, the kidnapping was very real--but the kidnapper was very drunk, and was having trouble completing the crime, dragging a woman out of her apartment and down the steps. I delayed because the victim was not actually yet in danger. Had he forced her into his car, I would have drawn and fired. If you have never had to make a shoot/no shoot decision--trust me, it is a very heavy burden. I'm Not Getting Enough Hate Mail, I Guess This Los Angeles Times article about an Arkansas abortion doctor seems to be trying very hard to be even-handed--but there are descriptions of the reasons for some of these abortions that make words like "shallow" and "thoughtless" seem completely inadequate: Before, after and even during an abortion, Harrison lectures his patients on birth control. He urges them to get on the pill and to insist their partners use condoms.I know that idiots like these two are probably not the norm for women getting abortions--but I have read enough over the years to make me suspect that they aren't completely unusual, either. You don't have to believe that human life begins at conception to be disgusted with this sort of callousness. I just love the terminology that the doctor uses to justify his practice: For several years in the 1980s, his clinic was picketed, vandalized and once firebombed. Protesters marched outside his home and death threats became routine. Harrison responded by making his case.Thanks to Different River for the pointer. Labels: abortion Gouging After Katrina No, no, not price-gouging--wage gouging. Different River points to reports of workers taking terrible advantage of businesses desperate for workers in New Orleans. Interesting Patent I have been searching for prior art in the U.S. Patent Office search engine, and I found an interesting idea in patent 6,639,718, by a Michael John Belcher of Auckland, New Zealand. In case you aren't aware of it, one of the biggest problems with telescope mounts is making them rigid to the ground without making them heavy. There are ways to accomplish this, but it generally requires a lot of cleverness in the design. Heavy in a telescope mount isn't a problem, as long as you don't ever plan to move the telescope. If you have a nice place to observe from, it doesn't much matter if the mount weighs a thousand pounds. But most amateur astronomers would like to be able to move their telescope, at least occasionally. You have probably seen the mobile basketball hoops that have a hollow base. You move them into the desired location in the neighborhood, and then fill them with water--what this patent probably had in mind when it refers to a "flowable ballast." You drain the base to move it. This patent seems to combine the ideas (along with some mount ideas as well), allowing you to get the combination of a reasonably portable mount with the stability of great weight. So why hasn't this patent been turned into a production telescope mount? My guess is that it is because most of the time that amateur astronomers move a telescope to a location other than home, it is somewhere sufficiently remote that there isn't a hose and a large quantity of "flowable ballast" available. It is still a clever idea. Liberals Suppressing Religious Expression This time, trying to suppress Christian symbols on private property: NOVI -- The multicolored nativity scene on the Samona family's front yard is under attack.So it isn't the Christmas display that this guy objects to--it is specifically the religious aspects of it. I find these displays all rather silly and sometimes even a bit tacky--especially the secular symbols. It is Christmas, not Santa Claus Day. Homeowners associations certainly have the right to limit displays--but there is something unseemly about deciding to suppress specifically religious displays. I suppose that the same argument that was used in Shelley v. Kraemer (1948) to ban racially restrictive covenants could be used here. In Shelley, the Court held that even though these covenants were private contracts, they were enforced by the states, and therefore state enforcement violated the equal protection clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. There is at least a plausible argument here that state enforcement of a covenant limiting religious symbols on the front lawn violates the First Amendment guarantee of religious freedom incorporated against the states. I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for the courts to apply a consistent principle on this. Swedish Supreme Court Rules In Favor Of Free Speech! Liberals must be horrified. Professor Volokh explains that a Pastor Ake Green had delivered a sermon in opposition to homosexuality, and was of course prosecuted for doing so. It is worth reading some of the comments on Professor Volokh's blog--you would think that homosexuals are an oppressed minority from the whining going on--not the controllers of the American judiciary. Objectivity, Fairness, & The Academic Life I used to be taken in by the claims that academics were focused on the pursuit of truth, and that objectivity and fairness were fundamental values in the university. Part of why I believed that was that, with a few exceptions, my professors actually fit that model. Of course, they were ancient--at one point when I was there, Sonoma State University's second most junior history professor had been there 25 years. A little more typical is trash like this: TOPEKA, Kan. - A University of Kansas professor who angered conservative lawmakers with comments about intelligent design and religious fundamentalism has apologized.Oh, I believe that. And there are fairies in my garden, too. Labels: intelligent design Tuesday, November 29, 2005
Carry Nation For The New Millennium Prohibitionism has a new face: Authorities in Oakland, California, say they've identified six of the bow-tie wearing vandals who trashed two liquor stores last Wednesday.Black Muslim men in suits with bow ties. Who do you think that could be? Denial of Service Variant? HostRocket.com claims to have turned my mail service back on--but it takes forever for emails to reach those accounts--and about half the time, they are getting rejected. They originally turned off my email because of a dramatic increase in mail attempts to my domain. I wonder if this might be a variant of a Denial of Service attack? Instead of trying to overload webservers, overload mail servers. Of course, it might be hard to distinguish intentional attack from the normal spam nonsense. Email Inoperable All of my email addresses on the domain claytoncramer.com are inoperable. At least senders are getting an error message: Your message did not reach some or all of the intended recipients.I have informed my domain hoster (hostrocket.com) of the problem--I am completely at a loss what happened. The only good news: I'm not getting any spam. Monday, November 28, 2005
The Abortion-Crime Connection Re-Examined I've mentioned before the paper published some years by Donohue and Levitt that argues Roe v. Wade (1973) caused much of the decline in violent crime rates in the 1990s. What was the mechanism, according to Donohue and Levitt? Abortion largely wiped out a generation of poor blacks, and poor black males are disproportionately violent criminals. Donohue & Levitt's paper was treated like flatuence at a fancy dinner party when it came out. Pro-lifers unsurprisingly, were, horrified by the implied "Look what good things came out of this!" Pro-choicers properly recognized the gruesome eugenics implications. I didn't find the idea preposterous, because there's no question that: 1. Poor black males are disproportionately violent criminals. 2. It is plausible that those most likely to abort were single, teenaged mothers--who under the best of conditions make lousy parents. Add in poverty, and #1 is not surprising. Of course, the big problem that I always have with these multivariate correlation studies is that it is very easy to do these wrong--and there aren't a lot of people who have sufficient expertise to spot the flaws. Just about any reasonably well-educated person can look at a bivariate correlation, do the calculations, and see if the results are mathematically correct. (He may even be able to see if the choice of variables are appropriate, and aren't suffering from some other interesting problem.) Multivariate analysis is a bit harder; read this paper analyzing Donohue and Levitt's claims, and unless you are an economist who does this sort of thing on a regular basis, you probably won't be able to figure out which is correct. In essence, these two economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston are using Donohue & Levitt's paper as an example of the sort of mistakes that get made on this type of study: State?level data are often used in the empirical research of both macroeconomists and microeconomists. Using data that follows states over time allows economists to hold constant a host of potentially confounding factors that might contaminate an assignment of cause and effect. A good example is a fascinating paper by Donohue and Levitt (2001, henceforth DL), which purports to show that hypothetical individuals resulting from aborted fetuses, had they been born and developed into youths, would have been more likely to commit crimes than youths resulting from fetuses carried to term. We revisit that paper, showing that the actual implementation of DL’s statistical test in their paper differed from what was described. (Specifically, controls for state?year effects were left out of their regression model. ) We show that when DL’s key test is run as described and augmented with state?level population data, evidence for higher per capita criminal propensities among the youths who would have developed, had they not been aborted as fetuses, vanishes.John Lott brought this to my attention, and he has some rather unkind things to say about Donohoue & Levitt: Personally, I think calling this a "programming oversight" is being much too nice. It is one thing for one regression to make this mistake, but apparently all their regressions made this mistake. More importantly everyone who works with panel data knows that you use fixed effects.If this seems a rather uncharitable view to take, remember that certain academics called Lott's statistical work for More Guns, Less Crime fradulent some years ago--without any proof. I don't think too highly of Professor Donohue; this email exchange between us should give you an idea of why. One good thing did come out of that: Donohue's insistence that civilian defensive gun uses are really uncommon: (Sure, every ten years some old lady in a wheel chair who couldn't use a bat or her fists shoots someone, but that Is at least as rare as [the] Hattori [killing].As a result, I started the Civilian Gun Self-Defense Blog where my co-blogger Pete Drum and I put up news accounts of civilian gun self-defense incidents--and it is rare for a day to go by without at least one incident. There a few that fit Donohue's notion of legal but perhaps unnecessary uses of deadly force, but they are vastly outnumbered by incidents where the use of deadly force was not only legal, but unavoidable. Labels: abortion Damaging Bush But Doing Themselves No Good The Washington Post has a survey that finds that all of this Democratic attack on Bush's Iraq policy may be souring Americans on the Iraq War--but the Democrats aren't getting any gain from it: Democrats fumed last week at Vice President Cheney's suggestion that criticism of the administration's war policies was itself becoming a hindrance to the war effort. But a new poll indicates most Americans are sympathetic to Cheney's point.I don't think the Democrats realize how badly this will rebound on them. If this partisan attack was about something like money, or the environment, it would be "just politics." But American men and women are dying in this war--and that's vastly more important than the vast majority of domestic policy issues. Those Democrats who are playing politics with Iraq (and let me emphasize, there are Congressional Democrats who recognize the seriousness of this matter, and aren't doing so) may manage to severely injure Bush, U.S. troop morale, and American foreign policy--and yet get no political gain from it, because of the anger that it is going to produce from the majority that sees this as politics. "Who lost China?" was the big question that soured U.S. politics throughout the 1950s. If the Iraq situation turns into a Vietnam-like disaster--or even close--there are going to be a lot of Americans who are going to listen very seriously to accusations that the Democrats "lost" Iraq for purely partisan purposes. Rep. Cunningham (R-CA) Pleads Guilty to Accepting Bribes News stories like this really depress me: SAN DIEGO - Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, an eight-term congressman and hotshot Vietnam War fighter jock, pleaded guilty to graft and tearfully resigned Monday, admitting he took $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors to steer business their way.I suppose that I could understand if the bribes were really, really enormous--but as a member of the House of Representatives, Cunningham gets an annual salary of $162,100, and a pretty spectacular pension. How many years of doing his job would it have taken to earn the $2.4 million in bribes? About fourteen years--maybe less, if you consider the pension. To put it more conventional terms--would you risk loss of a pretty secure job (members of Congress are very seldom defeated), your retirement account, your home, and several years in prison for 14 years of your salary, knowing that there are government agencies whose job it is too look for corrupt politicians? A person of low morals might be strongly tempted by 100 years worth of salary, but 14 years? This is not only corrupt, but irrational. Ted Rall, Leftist Cartoonist Make sure you click here to see the latest output (or is it excretion?) from political cartoonist Ted Rall. And the left wonders why we question the left's patriotism, integrity, and sense? Boise Real Estate Prices Yesterday's Idaho Statesman carried this article about investors buying Boise properties: Investors from outside the Treasure Valley have discovered Valley real estate. Why I Am Not A History Professor A few days ago, I posted a few items about the history of Thanksgiving--including William Bradford's account of the 1621 feast: They began now to gather in the small harvest they had, and to fit up their houses and dwelllings against winter, being all well recovered in health and strength and had all things in good plenty. For as some were thus employed in affairs abroad, others were exercised in fishing, about cod and bass and other fish, or which they took good store, or which every family had their portion. All the summer there was no want; and now began to come in store of fowl, as winter approach, of which this place did abound when they came first (but afterward decreased by degrees). And besides waterfowl there was great store of wild turkeys, of which they took many, besides venison, etc. Besides they had about a peck a meal a week to a person, or now since harvest, Indian corn to that proportion. Which made many afterwards write so largely of their plenty here to their friends in England, which were not feigned but true reports. [William Bradford, Samuel Eliot Morison, ed., Of Plymouth Plantation: 1620-1647 (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2001), 90.]I also quoted from Winslow's letter of December 21, 1621: Our harvest being gotten in, our Governor sent four men on fowling, that so we might after a more special manner rejoice together, after we had gathered the fruit of our labours. They four in one day killed as much fowl as with a little help besides, served the Company almost a week. At which time, amongst other recreations, we exercised our arms, many of the Indians coming amongst us, and amongst the rest their greatest king. Massoit with some 90 mne, whom for three days we entertained and feasted. And they went out and killed five deer which they brought to the plantation and bestowed on our Governor and upon the Captain and others. [Bradford, Of Plymouth Plantation, 90 n. 8.]Now I see that the New York Times has published an article by "James E. McWilliams, a history professor at Texas State University at San Marcos" that includes this astonishing claim: The native American food that the Pilgrims supposedly enjoyed would have offended the palate of any self-respecting English colonist - the colonial minister Charles Woodmason called it "exceedingly filthy and most execrable." Our comfort food, in short, was the bane of the settlers' culinary existence.Do you see a bit of a conflict between the eyewitness accounts above and Professor McWilliams' description? I can give you a number of accounts of hunting from early Plymouth that show that the Pilgrims regarded hunting with great enthusiasm--it was hardly "the essence of savagery." Why is it so bloody difficult for professional historians to read the accounts of the people that lived there? When Does Abortion Become Infanticide? This article from the Times of London should cause some serious discomfort: A GOVERNMENT agency is launching an inquiry into doctors’ reports that up to 50 babies a year are born alive after botched National Health Service abortions.When I was still living in Los Angeles, there was a brief stir about a late-term abortion in which the "fetal tissue" came out alive--and the doctors told the nurse to put the baby in a closet, so the crying noises wouldn't disturb anyone. It did, eventually, die, but it wasn't all that quick. The doctors were charged with homicide, but I don't know what ever happened. There is a point where an unborn baby is completely dependent on the mother, and removing it will cause immediate death. There is also a point where a fetus is viable--and it will die for the same reason that a one month old baby left alone will die--neglect. The abortion fanatics who insist that any point before a full-term delivery is legitimate to abort are playing into the hands of those who would prohibit all elective abortions. Labels: abortion Sunday, November 27, 2005
Civilian Gun Self-Defense Next Door Regular readers will know that I maintain a blog of news clippings of civilians in the U.S. using a gun in self-defense. I never expected such an incident this close at hand. I do not expect that this will make the newspaper--and yet such incidents are probably very common. My neighbor Brett is about my age. Saturday in the wee hours of the morning, his two dachshunds made a heck of a racket, but he thought nothing of it. Sunday (today) about 5:30 AM, they made a racket again--and our dog Biscuit started making a racket as well. My wife assumed this was a call of nature--but Biscuit ran to the fence that we share with Brett, and went completely beserk. My wife assumed that Biscuit was barking because of Brett's dachshunds. Nope. It turns out that someone went through an unlocked gate, and through the unlocked door from the back yard in to the garage. (Both of these security holes have now been fixed.) The dachshunds apparently made a serious effort to stop the intruder, but this guy was very intent on getting in. He went to the room of Brett's daughter who was visiting from college (Brigham Young University), and actually entered her room--but by this point, Brett was up, and beginning to try and figure out why the dogs were making such an extraordinary racket. His wife then told Brett that there was an intruder. Brett grabbed a gun, and started searching the house. The intruder apparently hid in a bathroom until Brett got past him, and then ran down the stairs and out the front door. Brett didn't ever see him--his son was sleeping in the living room, saw someone pass through, and assumed it was Brett. The police are of the opinion that this was probably a rapist, because of the level of persistence (making attempts on two nights in a row, and not being deterred by the dogs), and that he went directly to the daughter's room, and didn't steal anything. Brett never got off a shot, and never even aimed a gun at the intruder--but the intruder must have realized that if the man of the house is looking for an intruder in Idaho, he's not going to blow kisses at you. Brett is now busily enhancing security at his home. Being from Los Angeles, we already operate in full paranoid mode, so it doesn't change things much. House Project: Some Pictures This Time! My wife and I went up Saturday about noon and spent two hours collecting debris and throwing it into the dumpster. (Great exercise, by the way.) I guess that I should have taken a before picture, because there was a lot of junk in front and back. By doing the cleanup ourselves, it speeds up the process, and reduces the need for our builder to find unskilled labor--which is no longer available in the Boise area.  Click to enlarge |
