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Clayton Cramer's BLOG

Clayton's commentary on news and events of the day. Broadly speaking, I'm a conservative with libertarian sympathies (getting more conservative as my children get older).



Email me at blogmail at claytoncramer dot com. Sorry to be so indirect, but all spambots must die! But they haven't died yet! Include the word spamIamnot in your subject line to make sure that my spam blocker lets you through.

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Friday, September 15, 2006
 
Patent Question: Have You Ever Applied For a Patent Without a Patent Attorney?

Or at least done much of the process without one? I filed a provisional patent application last December, and while I would like to think the product might eventually bring in enough royalties to justify the $8,000 to $12,000 that a patent attorney typically charges, it seems like a bit of a long shot. If there were some way to do some of the work myself, and save a few thousand dollars, that would seem worthwhile. At even $8,000, it seems so unlikely to ever pay for itself that I really have a hard time justifying that kind of an expenditure.

I've ordered up Nolo Press's book about how to patent without an attorney. I was pretty impressed with their book on how to get a provisional patent application, and according to the Nolo Press web site, it is possible to get a patent on your own. We'll see.


 
My Upcoming Book: Armed America

You can at least see the cover of it at Amazon.com. The suggested retail price is $26.99; Amazon, of course, has it heavily discounted. I would prefer that people not do business with Amazon.com, for the reasons that I have explained here. On the other hand, no other web book store seems to have it listed yet, and I would dearly love to see it sell a few hundred thousand copies, so that I can retire.

There were a number of people who were involved in review and editing of the book, and to whom I promised a copy. As soon as my big stack arrives, your autographed copy will be on its way.


 
At Least the Guns Were Registered

The Toronto Globe and Mail is reporting, concerning Kimveer Gill's murder weapons:

Conservative MPs meeting said on Friday that it is not appropriate to talk about gun control or the gun registry so soon after the shootings in Montreal, although a few noted that the guns used by Mr. Gill were legally registered.

Treasury Board President John Baird said the existing registry obviously didn't work.

Yeah, a fat lot of good that did. When you read Gill's website, it makes you wonder if the two billion Canadian dollars spent on mandatory registration might have been better spent on mental illness identification and treatment programs.


 
Everytime I Say To Myself, "I'm Being Too Hard On Liberals"

I go read the Liberal Idaho blog, and I realize, no, I'm being far too easy on them. Some recent examples, such as this discussion of enthusiastic Republicans:

I hope Jim is right, but for the time being Idaho so blood red it isn't even funny any more. I attended Sean Hannity's rally last year when he came to Boise and let me tell you, it's scary, the way some people here are so glued to the Republican ideology. Not to Godwin myself, but it looked like a Nazi rally, heads nodding, fist pumping, and rage brewing, it was truly a scary, if not enlightening (from seeing my Treasure Valley neighbors) to watch the spectacle.

Someone has never seen the antiwar crowd ranting and raving, I guess.

I hope Idahoans will wake up and realize that they can get more out of their government by having at least two parties bickering, with one, the Republicans, all they are going to get is more taxes and less personal responsibility for their own lives.

Now what's funny about this is that the Democrats are insisting that the Republicans are trying to starve necessary government functions by cutting taxes--and this guy is complaining that Republicans are going to raise taxes?

And this piece, discussing a recent study that found that people that drink at bars have higher average paychecks than those that don't, and doesn't even consider the possibility that rather than drinking at bars increases paychecks, that perhaps those with larger paychecks can afford to drink at bars. Let's see, a beer at a bar is going to cost you $3? Or you could buy a sixpack at the store for about $7. Hmmm. I suppose that if you like to drink, and you have lots of money, you can afford to go to the bar. What's sad about Chris at Liberal Idaho is it seems from the frequency of his postings about this subject, that alcohol is a very important part of his life.

And this item by Chris, in which he mentions a study that finds that by the third generation, immigrants have generally lost proficiency in the language of their ancestral country, and suggests that Bill Sali (who is a Republican running for Congress here) needs to hear about it:

Oh, wait; it was a study, those things that those intellectual types do to try and prove stuff.

Guess it doesn't mean much.

One of the defining characteristics of liberalism is an arrogant assumption that anyone that disagrees with them is an ignorant knuckle-dragger. Yet Republicans are actually slightly more likely to be college graduates than Democrats, and you know, a few of us actually know how to string words together, and have books published (that aren't just full of pretty pictures), and do serious statistical work.

And more of the same here, where Chris points to an article in Spanish on the Grassroots for Grant blog (Grant is the Democrat trying to get himself elected to Congress from our district):
This is classic!

I wish I could see the state of confusion of the Sali staffers when they read that.

"What does these weird words mean mom? It's like a code or something..."

Chris is claiming that Sali's staffers are such ignorant fools that they won't recognize this as a foreign language.

Chris's stereotypes of conservatives: evil; tax-raisers; and so ignorant that they don't even recognize a foreign language as such. If I were with the Grant for Congress campaign, I would tell Liberal Idaho to stop being an active supporter. Chris is an embarrassment. If the Grant for Congress campaign doesn't consider Liberal Idaho an embarrassment, that tells me quite enough about Grant.

Maybe Liberal Idaho thinks these ignorant and nasty stereotypes are funny. If so, he needs his funny bone recalibrated.


 
Great Balloons!

A friend sent this picture--it would certainly cause a double take to have this guy blast past you on the freeway!



 
Weather & Insulation

The weather has changed here quite dramatically in the last few weeks. At the beginning of September, we were still having to run the air conditioning throughout the day--and even at night, it was often necessary. Yet our electric bill for a 2300 square foot house was only $61 for August. All that insulation means that the air conditioner, when it was running, would cool the house off quite effectively--and then the air conditioner would turn off, and stay off for 30 or 40 minutes at a stretch.

Since the weather started to cool, we have been able to turn off the air conditioning. We still needed it for a couple of hours in the late afternoon at the start of September, but we have not had it running at all for about a week--nor have we had the furnace running. We've had some crisp mornings over the last few days. This morning, the outside thermometer showed 44 degrees when I woke up about 7:00 AM. The temperature inside the house was 68 degrees. The combination of R-50 insulation in the ceiling, insulation under the floor, and R-38 insulation in the 2x6 walls, means that the waste heat from computers, appliances, night lights, and two humans, a dog and a cat, is sufficient to hold at least 24 degrees higher temperature inside.


Thursday, September 14, 2006
 
It Is Possible To Do An Astonishing Amount of Research Without Leaving Home

Albert Deutsch's The Mentally Ill in America is one of the first modern histories of American mental illness and its treatment. Like a lot of "firsts," more recent histories have identified a number of flaws in his work--which is really no surprise. Deutsch was doing much of his work for the American Foundation for Mental Hygiene (the name of which makes me think of a bunch of bluenoses out to clean up America's dirty minds), and it certainly influenced his analysis.

He is certainly biased strongly towards the mental health professionals, and like a lot of liberals of his time, he was a big fan of eugenics and mandatory sterilization of the feebleminded. If you think I'm being unfair to liberals of his time, remember that it was Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., who gave us the infamous, "Three generations of imbeciles are enough" in Buck v. Bell (1927).

One of the chapters of the book that I am working on next covers the development of civil commitment law in the U.S. Since this is an overview, I'm fighting my natural tendency to go read every primary source, and examine every such statute in all 50 states. (Stop! Less caffeine!) Still, there are times that you do have to find the primary sources, to verify that the secondary sources accurately describe the primary sources, and because you often find some startling information that way. Also, there are times when the secondary sources do not agree with each other, and I need to figure out which is correct.

This leads me the case of Morgan Hinchman, who was committed in 1845 to one of the Pennsylvania state mental hospitals, at the request of his mother, sisters, and a number of friends. They indicated that his behavior was strange, dangerous to himself and others, somewhat violent, and gave indications of not being entirely in touch with reality. Deutsch tells how Hinchman filed suit against a huge list of conspirators, including people that were just passing by. Okay, your first reaction is, "Hmmm. Paranoid schizophrenia?"

But Hinchman won his suit, and was awarded $10,000 in damages against family members, the sheriff, and doctors who had certified him. This is contrary to what you would expect, if he was actually exhibiting these signs of mental illness. Because Deutsch indicates that this case started Pennsylvania (and by example, other states) down the road towards a more formalized commitment process, that I thought it would be useful to see what else I could find about Hinchman.

To my surprise, I found [An American Citizen], The Hinchman Conspiracy Case, in Letters to the New York Home Journal... (Philadelphia: Stokes & Brother, Arcade, 1849), online at Cornell University, oddly enough, in a collection of anti-slavery documents. This is a book published by the defendants in Hinchman's lawsuit.

I also found a 1982 article by Paul S. Appelbaum and Kathleen N. Kemp, "The Evolution of Commitment Law in the Nineteenth Century: A Reinterpretation," in Law and Human Behavior, that argues that Deutsch got it wrong with how the Hinchman case influenced the law, and that Deutsch's oversimplification has played a part in subsequent understandings of the development of civil commitment law.

What I would really like to find is the 1849 decision of the Pennsylvania court in Morgan Hinchman's lawsuit. If you spend much time in Pennsylvania law libraries, it sure would be nice if you find it. I don't know at what level of the courts this suit happened, but it was in Philadelphia.

UPDATE: A reader writes:
You should take a look at my wife's new book: "Archie and Amelie: Love and Madness in the Gilded Age," by Donna M. Lucey. It documents the famous Archie Chanler lunacy case from 1896, which stretched on for decades. He changed his name to Chaloner, wrote a book about his experience, and campaigned against the "lunacy trust" as he called it.


 
It Appears That I Was Right

The young man who went on the shooting rampage at Dawson College yesterday left a web page (apparently taken down already, but the cached version is here) that was about as clear as could be about the extent of his mental problems. He was into Goth, and the page contains references to paranoia, depression, and feeling nothing. Like a lot of his generation, he has filled in various "scoring" surveys, and included the results that supposedly match those surveys on his website. They would be a little disturbing even if he hadn't gone on a rampage yesterday:

WAIT THERE. We're coming to get you now
we've called the guys in white coats to come and get you so dont commit a mass murder before they come or you'll find you'll be in there longer


Suicidally Depressed
You are longing to kill yourself, you slit your wrists, not for fun, but because the world isn't worth living in.



You scored as Black. You're heart is black. You are dead inside, possibly because of your past, you feel you have no emotions left and like you're just waiting to die. You find it hard to trust people and let them get close to you for fear of being hurt again.


You scored as Satanism. Your beliefs most closely resemble those of Satanism! Before you scream, do a bit of research on it. To be a Satanist, you don't actually have to believe in Satan. Satanism generally focuses upon the spiritual advancement of the self, rather than upon submission to a deity or a set of moral codes. Do some research if you immediately think of the satanic cult stereotype. Your beliefs may also resemble those of earth-based religions such as paganism.


You scored as Suicide. Your death will be suicide. What more can I say?


You scored as The Undertaker. You are the Lord of Darkness. NOTHING CAN STOP YOU! Why? Because not only are you menacing physically but mentally as well! That's hard to do! Also, the overwhelming respect you get by everyone else adds to your invulnerability! You're engulfed by Darkness no question about it. And if you want, you'll bring unlucky souls WITH YOU! When the inevitable comes, you WILL NOT REST IN PEACE!


The Land of Darkness is your dreary home. Your life is bleak and sinister. You are prone to depression. You feel anger at the world and you feel like the victim. Everyone is out to get you. You have no problem showing your emotions, and you probably show them in a destructive way. You might have no objections to causing other people pain as you put yourself through pain. You probably cut or
mutilate your body. However, deep down you are lost and crying out for help. You are a small weeping child with the hard exterior of a person who has been through extreme sorrow in their life.


Disorder Rating
Paranoid: Very High
Schizoid: High
Schizotypal: Very High
Antisocial: High
Borderline: Very High
Histrionic: Low
Narcissistic: High
Avoidant: Very High
Dependent: Moderate
Obsessive-Compulsive: Moderate


Likes:
My VF Baby
Goth girls
Goth Everything
Postal Dude
Heavy Metal
Germany
VampireFreaks.com
German Metal
The Trogs
Whiskey
Vodka
Beer
Marilyn Manson
First Person Shooters
Super Psycho Maniacs roaming the streets
Black Clothes
Black Everything
Night
Darkness
Cold Places
Individuality
My Knife
Blood
Ice Storms
The Crow
Frost
kittens
Black Metal
All Metal
Rain
Blizzards
Ravens
Crows
Grey Skies
Fire
Destroying My Enemies
Crushing My Enemies Skulls
Semi-Automatic Handguns
Combat Shotguns
Sawn-Off Shotguns
Assault Rifles
Hunting Knives
Swords
Sythe
Bow And Arrow
Battle Axes
Battles
Darkness
Anarchy
The Grim Reaper
Horror Movies
Icicles
Horror Everything
Hells Angels
Arrows
Massacres
Long Hair
Solitude
Trenchcoats
Hatch
B.D.U. Swat Cargo
Demons
Gothic Artwork
And Other Dark Artwork
Quentin Tarantino (Keep making those kick ass movies man, you rock)
Last Kiss Before Death(Not for me)
Anarchy
Rambo
Riots
Destruction
Winter
Snow
Ice
Cold Weather
The Lone Wolf
Hoodies
My Computer
VF
Thunder Showers
Harley Davidsons

Dislikes:
THE WORLD AND EVERYTHING IN IT

But to be more specific:

People who pretend to be your friend, but they're not
Country Music
Hip Hop
Posers
Wiggers
Chavs
Jocks
Preps
Normal people
Anything And Everything Hip Hop
All Those Who Oppose My Rule
Traffic
American Government
Animal Cruelty
Anyone Who Supports The American Government
Politics
Comedy Movies
The Police
Law Enforcement
Religion
All The Governments On Earth
God
Stress
Really Hot and Humid Summer Days
Lies
Betrayers
Deceivers
Manipulators
Lawyers
Anyone Who Has Anything Agains Metal Or Goth
Capatalists


You can't read a site like this without just wanting to cry. Here was someone calling out for help--and either no one was listening, or he wasn't willing to accept help when it was offered.

What a waste. What a tragedy.


Wednesday, September 13, 2006
 
I Just Love When The ACLU Boasts About The Things They Do

Otherwise, this would be so offensive that I would have to assume that it was libelous:
COLUMBUS, OH -- Today, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled that attorneys seeking to represent indigent clients are no longer required to sign documents swearing that they are not terrorists and have no involvement with terrorist groups. The American Civil Liberties Union of Ohio had challenged the provision, which is part of the Ohio Patriot Act, calling the requirement unnecessary red tape that will do nothing to prevent terrorism.

“We are pleased the court recognized that attorneys should not be forced to sign these ineffective and offensive pledges,” said ACLU of Ohio Executive Director Christine Link. “The Ohio Patriot Act is an assault on the fundamental liberties of all Ohioans. Hopefully, this decision is a stepping stone to reining in this overreaching and flawed law.”

Since the Ohio Patriot Act was enacted on April 14, 2006, the ACLU of Ohio has been inundated with questions and requests for aide from business professionals, lawyers, academics and various private companies who have all been forced to sign the terrorism oaths. Today’s decision marks the first successful challenge to the pledges.
Aren't you glad that the ACLU is concerned about eliminating unnecessary paperwork? (For the first time in history, I think.) Yup, it's "offensive" to say that you aren't a terrorist or working for a terrorist organization. Why, someone might think that you are against cutting a conscious person's head off with a knife, or murdering school children. We certainly can't have that!

Thanks to Stop The ACLU for the pointer.

For you liberals who like to call me a wingnut--just one question: what is so offensive about not working for terrorists?

Is it really "useless"? I don't think so. One of these days, we might actually get proof that at least some ACLU directors or attorneys are knowingly working for terrorist groups--and then it would be quite useful to prosecute them for perjury, and send them to prison. After all, people that hijack airliners, behead hostages, stone to death women for "impurity," and object to women learning to read--they need the ACLU to protect their interests.


 
A Spectacular Headline On A Powerful Article

This article from the Australian newspaper Herald Sun has a great headline on it:
Bulled by a Gore

Al Gore says his hot new film on global warming, An Inconvenient Truth, should alert us to a threat that risks "ending all human civilisation."

Instead, the hosannahs the former American vice-president is getting on his visit to spread his ludicrous scaremongering reveals a more immediate danger.

Is healthy scepticism and fidelity to facts dead in this country?

Are even our scientists too gripped by this end-of-the-world religion of man-made warming to dare point out Gore's documentary contains exaggerations, half-truths and falsehoods?

'Fraid so. It's one predictable thing for film critics such as the ABC's David Stratton to gush that An Inconvenient Truth -- essentially a film of a lecture I've seen Gore give -- might be "the most important film you ever see".

Stratton, after all, has his profession's weakness for assuming that what he sees on the screen must be real. Let's hope he never sees Attack of the Killer Tomatoes.

And the Gore-praising journalists must be grudgingly excused, too. Many tend to be salvation-seeking suckers for any green story that damns wicked humans and their rich ways.

...

Well, here are just 10 of my own "minor quibbles" with Gore's film. These are my own "inconvenient truths", and judge from them the credibility of Gore's warnings of the end of all civilisation.

1: Gore claims that a survey of 928 scientific articles on global warming showed not one disputed that man's gasses were mostly to blame for rising global temperatures. Only dumb journalists and bad scientists in the pay of Big Oil pretended there was any genuine debate.

In fact, as Dr Benny Peiser, from Liverpool John Moores University has demonstrated, Gore relies on a bungled survey reported in Science.

Peiser checked again and found just 13 of those 928 papers explicitly endorsed man-made global warming, and 34 rejected or doubted it. The debate is real.

2: Gore says the man who first made him realise we were heating up the earth was his late professor, oceanographer Roger Revelle, who noticed carbon dioxide levels were increasing.

In fact, Revelle shortly before his death co-authored a paper warning that "the scientific basis for a greenhouse warming is too uncertain to justify drastic action at this time". And some warming might even be good, he added.

3: Gore says ice cores from Antarctica, that go back 650,000 years, show the world got warmer each time there was more carbon dioxide in the air.

In fact, as the University of California's Professor Jeff Severinghaus and others note, at least three studies of ice cores show the earth first warmed and only then came more carbon dioxide, many hundreds of years later. So does extra carbon dioxide cause a warming world, or vice versa?

4: Gore shows a series of slides of vanishing lakes (like Lake Chad) and snow fields (like Mt Kilimanjaro's) and blames global warming for it all.

In fact, Lake Chad is so shallow it nearly dried out as far back as 1908, and again in 1984. So many more people depend on it now that the water pumped out for irrigation has quadrupled in 25 years. No wonder it's drying.

And Mt Kilimanjaro was losing its snows more than a century ago, not because of global warming, but -- says a 2004 study in Nature -- largely because deforestation has cut the moisture in the air.

And that worrying picture Gore shows of vanishing glaciers in the Himalayas? Newcastle University researchers last month said some glaciers there are now getting bigger again.


And it keeps going!

The question that always bothers me is this: Is Al Gore really so ignorant that he believes all this nonsense he spouts? Or does he believe that a bit of exaggeration is necessary in the hopes of meeting in some happy middle? Or is he just a politician willing to ride any horse that gets him into power? This set of pictures of Al Gore with Rev. Fred Phelps (you know, Mr. "God Hates Fags") suggests that Al Gore will do anything to get into power.

Labels:



 
Politically Motivated, Inaccurate History?

I started a little fracas in the comments section over at Volokh Conspiracy by pointing out that while it is now an arrestable offense to distribute leaflets that disapprove of homosexuality in Britain, homosexuals should consider themselves fortunate that our society was prepared to let them at least advocate for homosexuality 50 years ago--or they would not be in the position that they are in now. The response of homosexuals who cruise Professor Volokh's postings was to assert that homosexual advocacy (as distinguished from homosexual sex) was a criminal offense:
In 1954, a small magazine was began entitled ONE: The Homosexual Magazine. The magazine was not a porno mag, but rather was issue oriented. The first cover featured an article entitled "Homosexual Marriage?" Initially, they received advance ruling form the Post Office that the mag was obsene in no way and cleared the way to mailing. Once issued, however, The US Post Office siezed 600 hundreds copies of the first issue, declared it obsene. J. Edgar Hoover, head of the FBI, became obsessed over the issue, and was determined to crush ONE, and began investigations on any criminal sanctions that could be imposed on the mag or the people behind it. ONE filed a lawsuit, lost at every level, but finally the SCOTUS ruled in its favor. One v. Olesen (1958). Part of the reason SCOTUS ruled it favor of One is specifically because the mag merely talked about homosexuality, and did not ADVOCATE in favor of it. Had the mag taken the step of advocacy, the ruling may well have turned out differently.

In any case, it is clear that in 1958, mere advocacy of homosexuality would get you introuble with the FBI, the Post Office and possibly many other instutitions. (Source: Courting Justice: Gay Men and Lesbians v. the Supreme Court, by Joyce Murdock and Deb Price). Deb Price is a columnist for the Detroit Free Press.
Troublemaker that I am, I went and looked up One v. Olesen (1958), and concluded that this was quite a bit to derive from:
PER CURIAM.

The petition for writ of certiorari is granted and the judgment of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit is reversed. Roth v. United States, 354 U.S. 476 .


That's the entire decision in One v. Olesen, 355 U.S. 371 (1958). You will notice that the free speech rights of homosexuals were upheld.

Professor Eric Rasmusen thought it would be interesting to see what the Ninth Circuit ruling was--and discovered that the description of this case did not match the facts at all:
I found the 9th Circuit opinion, and we learn that what the case was all about was the sending of obscene material by U.S. mail. It turns out that there was no prosecution of the magazine at all. Rather, the lawsuit was started by the magazine, which asked the court to issue an injunction forcing Postmaster-General Olesen to send the magazine by U.S. mail, contrary to his claim that the magazine contained some obscene pages. One v. Olesen, 241 F.2d 772 (1957, 9th Circuit). Moreover, the obscenity was not related to the advocacy of homosexuality, but rather involved such things as a short story, a poem, and an advertisement.
One of the very troubling aspects of what has happened to the history profession over the last twenty years is the rise of what I call political advocacy history--where someone writes a history book where the primary purpose is to justify a particular current political position. This doesn't mean that history books that reach a particular conclusion are bad, nor does it mean that an author can't have an opinion that informs a particular perspective. But it does mean that you can't just make stuff up to make your position stronger when you get to court.

That was clearly the case with Michael Bellesiles's Arming America, where his desire to promote gun control led him to create an alternate universe. Unfortunately for Bellesiles, he cited sources in this universe, and unlike his ideological stablemates in 1984, there was no Ministry of Truth going around a revising all his sources to fit.

I've pointed out that the claims made by historians in their brief in the Lawrence v. Texas (2003) decision are, at best, incomplete. To the extent that they make claims about the history of sodomy laws, their incompleteness make them wrong.

I don't know if the Randy R. who posted the summary of One v. Olesen (1958) misread Courting Justice or not, but I would not be all surprised to find that it is part of this political advocacy history movement.


 
Good Little Leftists Everywhere Can Rejoice In Their Allies

This guy wants you to download Loose Change, the documentary that "tells the truth" about what happened on 9/11. Make sure you visit the top of his blog, and see all the wonderful stuff with which you have made common cause. I'm sure that good little leftists will fall all over themselves with joy at who their friends are.


 
Readers in Massachusetts

If you are one of those people who occasionally spends time in a law library there--could I impose upon you to photocopy a January 1845 Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court decision, Matter of Oakes? It should be at most a couple of pages. I'm happy to pay for photocopying and mailing, or even better, if you could scan and email it to me. I've found an online copy of it here, but I would feel more comfortable citing a printed copy.


 
Canada's Very Strict Gun Control Laws

They were created in response to a very similar incident in 1989. They didn't work:
MONTREAL (AP) - A gunman in a black trench coat opened fire Wednesday in the cafeteria of a Montreal college and wounded at least 12 people - six critically - before shooting himself, witnesses and authorities said.

Scores of panicked students at Dawson College near downtown fled into the surrounding streets after the shooting broke out in the school of about 10,000. Some had clothes stained with blood.

Police spokesman Ean Lafreniere said there was just one gunman at the school and the search for any others was over.

Martine Millette of the Montreal police said the gunman later shot himself. Constable Philippe Gouin said "in all probability, the suspect has committed suicide."
Is it perhaps time to ask what might work?

I would be surprised if the gunman was lawfully in possession of a firearm. I would be very, very surprised if the gunman does not turn out to have a long history of mental illness, arrests, and petty crime convictions. It will likely turn out that somewhere, the gunman was known to be a danger to himself and others--and the Canadian mental health system, which is just about as damaged as ours, was unable to hold him against his will.


 
Big Cities Make You Crazy

Perhaps literally so. Until the last decade before the American Revolution, there were no institutions for the mentally ill in America. For the most part, mentally ill people were cared for by their family or the town in which they lived. On those rare occasions when a mentally ill person had been convicted of a violent crime, or was otherwise considered dangerous, they were often confined at home. I've mentioned the example of Roger Humphry, who murdered his mother, was found not guilty by reason of insanity, and was confined at home by his father, in 1759 Connecticut.

Histories such as Gerald N. Grob, Mental Institutions in America: Social Policy to 1875 (New York: The Free Press, 1973), 37-38, argue that urbanization played a role in increasing perceived need for institutionalization of the mentally ill, partly because the anonymity of urban life meant that you didn't know what the person acting strangely might do. In a small town, everyone knew everyone else, and if Mr. Jones or Mrs. Smith was prone to odd behavior, you knew what that behavior would include, and that this person probably wasn't a danger. Not so with a complete stranger in say, 1790 Boston.

There also seems to be agreement that mental illness rates actually increased in the early Republic, and at least partly because Irish immigrants had much higher rates of mental illness than Americans. My curiosity caused me to go looking for evidence of disparities in national rates of mental illness, and I found that there are a number of studies that conclude that being born in, or at least growing up in urban areas increases the risk of schizophrenia and other psychoses--and these studies controlled for a variety of possible confounding factors. See G. Lewis, A. David, S. Andreasson, P. Allebeck, “Schizophrenia and city life,” Lancet [July 18, 1992] 340(8812):137-40, abstract available here; M. Marcelis, F. Navarro-Mateu, R. Murray, J.P. Selten, J. Van Os, “Urbanization and psychosis: a study of 1942-1978 birth cohorts in The Netherlands,” Psychological Medicine, [July 1998] 28(4):871-9, abstract available here.

No one has exactly identified what aspects of urbanization might cause the increase in psychoses, and perhaps whatever the risk factor present today wasn't present in the substantially smaller cities of early America. It is rather interesting, however, that it would appear that mental illness rates appear to have increased at about the point where America developed cities with populations in the tens of thousands.

Cities: who needs them?


Tuesday, September 12, 2006
 
You Always Find Neat Stuff After The Book Is Done

I was digging for information about Colonial civil commitment laws for the mentally ill, and I found something that would have been nice to put in my forthcoming book Armed America--but you always find these last little dollops of whipped cream on the pudding too late!

I could find no evidence that Catholics were ever disarmed in America under the English Disarming Papists Act, and made that point in my book--but here I find evidence that while some Catholics in Maryland were disarmed (apparently unofficially) during the Glorious Revolution (the one that brought William & Mary to the throne), this was made right a few years later. From Archives of Maryland 20:224:
Upon Representation Ordered that all persons who tooke any private Armes from Roman Catholicks or others in the time of the late Revolution that they bring and deliver all such Armes up into the hands of the Collonell of the County where taken, who is hereby Obliged & Required to Cause the same to be restored to the Right Owners.


 
This Sentence Should Be Taken Out and Shot

It is the first sentence (and only one sentence) of a law passed by the Maryland legislature in 1773 that I think was supposed to protect the rights of minors, the retarded, and the mentally ill, but I don't have the patience to try and read this multipage sentence. From Archives of Maryland, 64:201-3:
Be it enacted by the Right Honourable the Lord Proprietary by and with the Advice and Consent of his Governor and the Upper and Lower Houses of Assembly and the Authority of the same That from and after this Session of Assembly Persons under the Age of one and twenty Years and Persons being Idiot Lunatick or non compos Mentis seized or possessed of any Lands Tenements or Hereditaments in Trust or by Way of Mortgage or seized or possessed thereof charged or chargeable with the Payment of Money or Tobacco and therefore subject or liable to a Decree for Sale or bound by an Agreement to convey made by some Person or Persons having Right or Title to make such Agreement and therefore subject or liable to a Decree for Conveyance on a Suit for a Specific Performance or Execution of such Agreement shall by Direction of the Court of Chancery signified by an Order made upon the hearing of all Persons concerned on the Petition of the Person or Persons for whom such Infant or Infants or Persons being Idiot Lunatick or non compos Mentis or his her or their Committee or Committees in his her or their Name or Names shall be seized or possessed in Trust or of the Mortgagor or Mortgagors or other Person or Persons entitled to Redemption or Person or Persons entitled to Money or Tobacco secured by or upon the said Lands Tenements or Hereditaments or of the Person or Persons entitled to any Money or Tobacco with the Payment whereof the said Lands Tenements or Hereditaments are or shall be charged or chargeable or of the Person or Persons entitled to a Specific Performance or Execution of such Agreement as aforesaid convey and assure any such Lands Tenements or Hereditaments in such Manner as the Court of Chancery shall by such Order so to be obtained direct to any other Person or Persons and such Conveyance or Assurance so to be had and made as aforesaid shall be as good and effectual in Law as if such Infant or Infants were at the Time of making such Conveyance or Assurance of the full Age of twenty one Years and the Conveyance or Assurance so to be had and made as aforesaid in the Case 0f Persons being Idiot Lunatick or non compos Mentis shall in like Manner be as good and effectual as if the said Person or Persons was or were at the Time of making such Conveyance or Assurance of sound Mind Memory and Understanding and had by him her or themselves executed the same and all and every such Infant or Infants or Persons being Idiot Lunatick or non Compos Mentis being Trustee or Trustees Mortgagee or Mortgagees or being seized of possessed of Lands Tenements or Hereditaments liable or subject in any manner aforesaid or the Committee or Committees of all and every such Persons being Idiot Lunatick or non compos Mentis shall and may be compelled by such Order as aforesaid to make such Conveyance or Conveyances Assurance or Assurances in like Manner as Persons of full Age and Sane Memory are compellable to make Provided always that no Order or Direction as aforesaid shall be made or given in Virtue of this Infants seized or possessed of any Land Tenements or Hereditaments charged with or subject to the Payment of Money or Tobacco unless it shall appear that the Guardian or Guardians of such Infant or Infants hath or have consented thereunto and also that such Infant or Infants will not sustain any Detriment Disadvantage or Inconvenience from such Order or Direction and also that upon every Order or Direction for Conveyance to be made by an Infant or Infants for the Specifick Performance and Execution of any such Agreement as aforesaid Liberty shall be reserved for the said Infant or Infants to Shew Cause within six Months after he she or they shall have attained the full Age of twenty one Years if such Infants or Infants shall attain such full Age and also for the Heirs of such Infant or Infants if such Infant or Infants shall not so long live in six Months after the Decease of such Infant or Infants if the said Heirs shall then be of full Age and if such Heirs shall not then be of full Age in six Months after such Heirs shall have attained his her or their full Age why such Conveyance ought not to have been ordered or directed and on sufficient Cause being shewn as aforesaid the Infant or Infants aforesaid or his or their Heirs shall be entitled to and have a Re-Conveyance by Order or Decree of the said Courts of the said Lands Tenements or Hereditaments by whomsoever claimed or possessed by from or under the Conveyance made by such Infant or Infants aforesaid and also a full Account of the Rents and Profits thereof and from the Person who shall have received the same --
Just a little reminder that not everyone wrote elegant and clear English back then--and the worst of modern legalese doesn't look quite so bad by comparison.


Monday, September 11, 2006
 
There Are Two Reasons Why This Makes Sense

The first reason is one that every Christian can appreciate and respect: spreading the Gospel of Jesus Christ.

The second reason is that an Iran with a rising Christian population is a bit less likely to be interested in a confrontation with the West. Sure, there will still be strongly felt Iranian nationalistic sentiments--but the apocalyptic "twelfth imam" stuff that the current president of Iran believes isn't going to sway Iranian Christians in his favor--quite the opposite.
The Urgent Need Of New Testaments In Iran

A pastor in a city in the south of Iran receives a few copies of the Scriptures from some visitors and simply says "These are like gold-dust here;" a lady comes to faith in Christ through a program on satellite TV and has to write down verses shared during the program to compile her own "Bible;" two students watch the film "The Passion Of The Christ" being shown on an inter-city bus and one is overheard saying, "the Koran says Jesus never died on the cross, but this film says he did. How I wish I could have a New Testament to know what really happened." A pastor, a new believer, and an enquirer - all want the New Testament.

These true stories highlight the urgent need for New Testaments in Iran where there is unprecedented spiritual hunger. Well over 85% of the population are deeply disillusioned with the hard-line fundamentalist regime which in the name of Islam has given them war, totalitarianism, and economic chaos. But though tired of the government's religion, there is still great interest in spiritual things. And it is especially the children of the 1979 revolution, over 50% of the total 70 million population, who are seeking for answers beyond Islam.

Some are turning to Eastern religion, others to Zoroastrianism, the ancient faith of Iran, and there is tremendous openness and interest in Jesus Christ.

The Christians in Iran, both from the above-ground and under-ground church, are keen evangelists and are more than ready to share Christ with the people, despite the risks involved. Before any evangelistic effort, they will first pray and fast, sometimes for days, asking God to supernaturally guide them to people who are open. They then find that the Lord leads them in miraculous ways. After much prayer one lady felt led to visit the sick in the hospital. When she arrived in the reception area she saw a lady sitting on the stairs, covered in her traditional black robes, her body shaking with grief. The evangelist started to talk to her and found out she was crying for her sick son. The evangelist then asked if she could pray for the lady's son in the name of Jesus. When the lady heard the name Jesus she looked shocked.

"Jesus, did you say Jesus?"

"Yes," the evangelist replied. "Jesus loves you and can heal the sick."

The crying lady then explained that the night before she had had a dream. She had seen Jesus and He had told her that the next day his prophet would come and visit her.

"So, you are the prophet of Jesus".

The evangelist now knew for sure that she was exactly where she was meant to be. She prayed for this lady - and went on that day to pray for two other families. We know that at least one of the sick was definitely healed.

It is these obedient servants who are pleading with the international church to send more New Testaments to Iran. They are willing to risk their lives to share Christ with those they are sent to - but they know they must leave people with Scriptures.

These servants are particularly keen to have supplies of the pocket size New Millennium New Testament published by Elam Ministries. They like the size as it slips easily into a bag or a coat pocket; they like the quality, the print is exceptionally clean and clear and it has a beautiful soft imitation leather cover, and they like the translation. It is accurate, modern and elegant. The old version is now very difficult for young Iranians to understand. They also love the fact that at the end of this slim New Testament there is a "Help Section" which shows the reader where to find passages that will answer his or her particular questions or needs, and right at the end there is a clear explanation of the Gospel.

The urgency for these New Testaments in Iran is not just reflected in the stories coming out of the country and the pleas of the church's brave and faithful evangelists. There is also a sense among many mission leaders that this is a very special time for the nation of Iran. Never before has this Muslim nation shown so much openness to the Gospel of Christ, and it is a fact that more Iranian Muslims have become Christian since the 1979 revolution than in the last 1,300 years. And not only in Iran are people coming to faith, but you will find that from New Zealand to New York there are new fellowships of Iranian Christians.

In our generation Iranians are open, and that lends urgency to the need to take the Gospel to these people. Nobody knows how long this openness will last, but let it not be said that the international church missed one of the most extraordinary opportunities in the history of mission to let the New Testament change the character of a nation.

For it is the Christ found in the pages of the New Testament who changes entire nations. As Tyndale gave his life so his people could have the Scriptures in their own language, so the English responded and through the Puritans and the Evangelicals an entire nation was changed. It was this same New Testament that crossed the Atlantic and has stamped its teachings on so much of the American way of life.

And this same Christ, found in the same New Testament, can change Iran.

Elam Ministries has recently printed 50,000 copies of the pocket New Testament, but such is the demand that they have to immediately send in another order to the printers. The question is - how many should be printed? At the moment the ministry is planning to print 100,000, but perhaps the international church should be thinking bigger. Iran has a population of 70 million - would it be over-ambitious of the church to want to print at least one million? That would still leave 69 million without any Scriptures.

Elam Ministries believes it is right to be at least dreaming about sending one million New Testaments to Iran as soon as possible, but ultimately this depends on funding. As it is illegal to print any Christian material in the country's national language, Persian, in Iran, let alone New Testaments, they have to be printed in Europe and then taken in. This means that as well as the cost of printing there is also a lot of freighting and courier costs. This brings the total price of making sure an Iranian can have a New Testament to $10.

Can you help us cover that cost? Your gift of $10 can pay for putting a New Testament in the hands of an Iranian; $50 would cover five Bibles; $100 would pay for ten copies of the Scriptures; $250 would cover the cost of twenty-five New Testaments... The blessings would be enormous!

Many have been praying for mission to Iran for years - and their investment is bearing fruit beyond expectations. Iran is ready for unprecedented church growth that would have an impact across the troubled region. Now, more than ever, your partnership in reaching the Iran region matters and will make a difference.

Elam Ministries is a faith mission and is dependent on the financial support of Christians around the world. To reach more in the Iran region for Jesus, we need more people to partner with us. Every partner makes a difference, and so we thank you for prayerfully considering investing in this mission. By partnering with Elam, you will help to deliver these much-needed New Testaments to spiritually hungry Iranians.

To donate online, CLICK HERE:

http://www.adnamis.org/multiMissionGiving.cfm?cat_id=149&cat_name=Cover%20Story

If you'd like to donate by check or money order, send to:

Advancing Native Missions
Farsi Bibles For Iran Project
Post Office Box 5303
Charlottesville, VA 22905


 
How About Starting Small?

Michael Williams points me to this thoughtful piece by Randy Kirk pointing out that weather forecasts even a few days in advance are notoriously inaccurate--and we are supposed to be making major national policy decisions based on predictions of global temperatures fifty years in the future?
I grew up in St. Louis where the mantra was, "If you don't like the weather now, wait an hour. My friend Mike Williams and his lovely wife have just moved from the "boring" perfect weather in West Los Angeles to the exciting, not-so-perfect weather in St. Louis. Mike posts that the weatherman is never right in St. Louis, and gives a few examples. He ends by suggesting that the huge number of variables in the weather system there makes it a tough job to predict weather with any accuracy.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, has far fewer variables. It is not going to include snow, sleet, tornadoes, hurricanes, or even under 40?. And we would have the general sense that local weather jockies, Johnny Mountain and Dallas Rains, get it right most of the time. How hard is it to read "Sunny and mild tomorrow" every single day. They would then be correct about 300 days a year.

Look a bit deeper, however, and things begin to break down a bit. Since we know the general weather almost every day, we primarily want to know what the temperature is going to be. The high will probably be between 70 and 100, even more likely between 70 and 95 almost every day in Spring, Summer, and Fall. So, with that more limited issue to deal with, how does the local weatherman come out? Not too well!

I plan to do a longer term look over the next month or so, but for now I took the last two weeks. Here are the results as extracted from the Los Angeles Times between Tuesday Aug 22 and Saturday September 2, 2006.

The 5 day forecast was off by an average of 9.2 degrees
The 4 day forecast was off by an average of 8.2 degrees
The 3 day forecast was off by an average of 8.4 degrees
The next day forecast was off by an average of 5.4
The same day forecast was off by an average of 5.1

While it was heartening to see that the closer the forecaster was to the date being forecast, the closer they got to the actual temperature, it seemed astounding to me that we put any merit at all in these guesstimates.

In fact, using my own guess that the temp will not be above 95 or below 70 this time of year, I might then use 82.5 every day as my forecast. If I had done so, I would have done better than the forecaster. Their average was 81.36, over 1 degree further off than my estimate. Only on the same day forecast would I have been bested. Here, their estimate was average of 84.

OK! So What? So, these are the guys that are telling us to spend trillions of dollars and potentially wreck entire industries because of their predictions regarding global warming.

In a new study just released by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the most respected international agency making pronouncements of great certainty with regard to future global temperature changes, they have dramatically changed their estimates since just five years ago. Instead of a potential maximum leap of 5.8? C , they are now saying a maximum 4.5? C in the next 100 years.
If this stuff is science (you know, experimental method, prediction), then I would expect that a scientist should be able to give me some predictions of the future, with a statistical statement about its accuracy. "The yield from this reaction will be 20 kilograms, +- .002 grams." "The height of the waves after we drop a 50 ton weight into the lake will be 35 centimeters, with a standard deviation of 1.24 centimeters." As Randy Kirk points out, local weather prediction over a period of days should be substantially simpler than global prediction over a period of decades--and even this seems to be barely better than a guess.

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Inexpressible Rage

I caught a little bit of the retrospectives on what happened on 9/11, and the more I look at this, the more rage that I feel about the left's efforts to blame the United States for what happened. A lot of local leftists insist that we got 9/11 because the U.S. is a bully, telling other countries what to do. So why is that the hijackers of 9/11 were all from countries in which the U.S. has never intervened? If the hijackers had been Salvadorans, or Cubans, or Guatemalans, or Nicaraguans, or Panamanians, or Iranians, this argument might at least have a starting point for discussion. But look at a list of the nationalities of the 9/11 hijackers: Egyptian: 1; Saudi Arabia: 12; Lebanese: 1; United Arab Emirates: 1; unknown: 4.

The U.S. has never intervened in Saudi Arabia--the only U.S. forces there were at the request of the Saudi government, for their protection. The U.S. has never intervened in Egypt, or the United Arab Emirates.

Lebanon's president asked for U.S. assistance in 1958, and U.S. forces were there for only a few months. U.S. forces were part of a multinational peacekeeping force in 1982-83 sent to prevent civil war and to encourage the Israelis to withdraw.

The real source of the problem is that the Arab world really doesn't want to face some unpleasant facts. It is poor--in spite of sitting on top of a huge chunk of the world's oil reserves--not because of the West, and not because of Israel, but because its culture seems to be incapable of taking an enormous amount of capital, and turning it into a wealth creation machine. Instead, at best, they produce thugocracies. Kuwait and now Iraq are the only really functional Arab democracies, and one of those needed to be invaded to make it happen. Throughout the world, there are cultures that started out with less potential capital than the Arab nations--and managed to move up economically. It is just easier to blame the United States, rather than look in the mirror for the causes of their poverty and misery.

UPDATE: Outside the Beltway has gathered together a number of leftist comments about 9/11--the "Blame America" crowd is at it again--the national version of, "If you weren't wearing a short skirt, you wouldn't have been raped." Andy Rooney, of course, wants us to engage in introspection:
The disaster on September 11th wasn't like any of those. It was manmade. Death by design. Some people who hated Americans set out to kill a lot of us and they succeeded

Americans are puzzled over why so many people in the world hate us. We seem so nice to ourselves. They do hate us though. We know that and we're trying to protect ourselves with more weapons.

We have to do it I suppose but it might be better if we figured out how to behave as a nation in a way that wouldn't make so many people in the world want to kill us.
I can't even quote some of the other examples that Outside the Beltway found because of language, but they basically boil down to claiming that George Bush was an abject coward, and had a good giggle because of 9/11.

But of course, al-Qaeda's fight is not against the U.S., but against all non-Muslim nations. At least, Osama Bin Laden says so:
This battle is not between al Qaeda and the U.S. This is a battle of Muslims against the global crusaders.
According to al-Jazeera, the recently released tape of Bin Laden and two of the 9/11 hijackers states why they were attacking the U.S.:
The men said that their actions were inspired by an urge to avenge the suffering of Muslims in Bosnia and Chechnya.
As one of the commenters over at Outside the Beltway points out (and from whom I cribbed these links):
The US saved Muslims in Bosnia and had nothing to do with Chechnya. So the notion that AQ is simply reacting to US foreign policy is without merit. And the notion that you are going to change the minds of religious fanatics also lacks a degree of common sense.

As does the notion that you would allow them to control your lives our your country’s foreign policies. “They hate us” because we supported Saddam? OBL hated us because we were containing Saddam through a presence in Saudi Arabia. Now “they hate us” because we toppled Saddam. Jihadis will always find a reason to hate us, because we are infidels.



 
Five Years Later, It Is Almost Like 9/11 Didn't Happen

The United States must win wars rapidly--or not win them at all. For a year or two, partisan politics wasn't an issue--the threat was so clear, and the danger so obvious, that even the most vicious and dishonest of Democrats wouldn't play games with it. Even today, there are Democrats in Congress who know that the War on Terror isn't a game. But it didn't take long for the dishonest wing of the Democratic Party, led by Michael Moore, to start its campaign of blaming America.


 
Liberals Are At It Again

Professor Volokh mentions a news account of a man being arrested for distributing anti-homosexual literature in Britain:

[Evangelical Christian Stephen Green] faces a court appearance today charged with using 'threatening, abusive or insulting words or behaviour' after his attempt to distribute the leaflets at the weekend 'Mardi Gras' event in Cardiff.

A spokesman for the police said the campaigner had not behaved in a violent or aggressive manner, but that officers arrested him because 'the leaflet contained Biblical quotes about homosexuality'....

The anti-gay campaigners were first asked by police to leave the site of the [Mardi Gras event] following 'complaints from the public', and complied with the request. However, they were approached again by police when they began handing out leaflets at the entrance to the park where the Mardi Gras was staged.

Mr Green refused to stop distributing leaflets and was arrested, and then questioned for four hours at a police station. He was charged after refusing a caution.

The leaflets were headed Same-Sex Love - Same-Sex Sex: What does the Bible Say?, and included a series of quotations from the 1611 King James Bible, a text usually regarded as one of the foundation stones of the English language.

Aimed at demonstrating Biblical disapproval of homosexual sex, they included from the Old Testament Leviticus 18.22, 'Thou shalt not lie with mankind as with womankind: it is abomination'.

Professor Volokh points out:
It does look like publicly teaching traditional Christianity might indeed be a crime in England.
And of course, liberals respond in the comments. Dilan Esper writes:
Obviously, this is a bad law because it censors anti-gay speech, and homophobes should have every right to express their opposition to gays and lesbians forming relationships.

Nonetheless, I frankly don't see why it is in any sense PARTICULARLY bad, as Professor Volokh implies, that the statute prohibits "publicly teaching traditional Christianity" as opposed to prohibiting some other sort of discourse.

If you want to label fervent opposition to homosexuality as "traditional Christianity" (a loaded label, as I am not entirely convinced that this was an issue that was of great concern to most Christian denominations until relatively recently, when gays and lesbians started to come out of the closet in large numbers), I guess that's one way to look at it. But the more correct label is probably "religiously-motivated homophobia" or something along those lines.
Angus writes:
I am very near an absolutist on free speech issues, but I want to take a step back here and wonder if this is really such a travesty of justice, and one that would certainly never happen here.

In the U.S., this activity could very well fall under the "fighting words" exception given the context of the speech -- namely at a gay pride event.
And more directly, Bruce Wilder writes:
"It does look like publicly teaching traditional Christianity might indeed be a crime in England."

Better to outlaw "traditional Christianity" than to outlaw human nature.
If you think that I am incorrectly describing these apologists for totalitarianism as liberals, visit their blogs. Dilan Esper's blog is here; Bruce Wilder's blog is here.

Some of the remarks in this thread reveal the homofascist mentality at work. Bruce Wilder, in particular, shows his desire to suppress any idea that interferes with what increasingly is liberalism's Prime Directive--homosexuality.

One of the reasons that I have moved from libertarian to conservative is the increasing realization that a society that does anything more than simply tolerate* homosexuality becomes a society that doesn't tolerate values that conflict with it. The choice seems not to be tolerance of a variety of perspectives. Homosexuality (at least, in its dominant political form) insists on occupying the entire moral space of a society--and any values or beliefs that disapprove of it must be actively suppressed.

*Note: "tolerate" in the original sense of the word. In practice, by the 1980s, homosexuality, even where it was still unlawful, was generally tolerated in the U.S. Don't have sex in public parks or restrooms; don't make a point of having sex where the neighbors will see it; don't make a big noise about being gay--and no one will do anything about it. Homosexuals, because of their profound need for approval for something that many of them know is shameful and weird, raised the ante from tolerance to not just social acceptance, but legal mandates of acceptance.

Your choice: homosexuality, or a largely free society.


Sunday, September 10, 2006
 
Are The Democrats Going to Regain Control of the House?

That was conventional wisdom a few weeks ago. Steve Frank points to a recent article in Human Events arguing that the wind is changing again--and what seemed like Democrats retaking control of the House is far less certain now:
The September consensus: nearly unanimous. Voter anxiety over the economy, health care and financial security, the Washington Post's Dan Balz observed, threatens to put Republican candidates across the country on the defensive this fall. Veteran Congress watcher Stuart Rothenberg predicted a heavy-damage scenario for the Republicans. The House minority leader even guaranteed that "we're going to win the House back."

Those prognostications were made in September 2002, before the last mid-term election, and they were all wrong. Far from incurring irreparable political damage, House Republicans spent September and October rallying their political base then regained control of the Senate and picked up three House seats.

...

Ignored was a Gallup Poll released in late August that found an unexpected tightening in what pollsters call the "generic ballot" question: "If the election were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?" Pundits looking to assess the national mood regularly cite the results of this question, and did so promiscuously earlier this year when Democrats enjoyed seemingly insurmountable advantages such as 54% to 38% in late June, or 51% to 40% immediately before Congress' August recess.

But then something happened as lawmakers spent August reconnecting with their constituents. The advantage for the generic Democratic candidate slipped from 11 points in late July, to nine points in early August, and then to a statistically insignificant two points (47% to 45%) in its August 18-20 survey. Among those most likely to vote, moreover, the Democrats' advantage disappeared entirely, with Gallup reporting a dead heat: 48% to 48%.

Anxious to understand this movement toward Republican candidates, Gallup sorted the responses to the generic-ballot question into two new categories. Are Democrats, it wanted to know, competitive in U.S. House districts currently held by Republicans, or just getting a larger-than-normal share of the vote in the districts they already hold? Obviously, the odds that Democrats will retake the House are exponentially greater if they demonstrate strength against Republicans in their own backyards than if they simply accumulate larger-than-usual margins in their own districts.

Using area codes and exchanges to identify whether the voter resides in a district represented by a Democrat or a Republican, Gallup reviewed the 13 polls in 2006 in which it asked this question. Through July, Democrats not only posted two-to-one margins in districts they currently represent, but were unusually competitive in Republican-held districts as well.

For example, Democrats outpaced Republicans in Republican-held districts in several polls, with their advantage peaking at an astounding 11-point margin (51% to 40%) in late June. This verifies the widespread perception in conservative circles that Republican base voters were in open revolt against their party earlier this year.

But then Democrats began to lose favor in Republican districts, falling steadily from 51% in late June, to 46% a month later, then to 43% in early August, and finally to the current low of 40% in the August 18-20 survey. Support for Republicans, in contrast, rose 14 points in six weeks, from a low of 40% to its current level of 54%.
I can't immediately find the Gallup polls being mentioned here, but I don't find this implausible. Remember that much of the upset at Republicans is because of Bush's immigration stand--and this is an area where many House Republicans are with the majority, not with the President. As those House Republicans return home, campaign, and talk about what they've done, a fair number of their constituents are probably rethinking their position--remembering that the Democratic Party, by and large, is the party of open borders, and the Republican Party, by and large, is the party of enforcing existing immigration laws.


 
Oh, No! Ulterior Political & Religious Motives in the Creative Community!

Yes, this a real problem--especially because Hollywood has never been motivated by hidden political agendas before this!
The following month, on July 28, the New York Post reported that ABC was filming a mini-series "under a shroud of secrecy" about the 9/11 attacks. "At the moment, ABC officials are calling the miniseries 'Untitled Commission Report' and producers refer to it as the 'Untitled History Project,'" the Post noted.

Early on, Cunningham had recruited a young Iranian-American screenwriter named Cyrus Nowrasteh to write the script of his secretive "Untitled" film. Not only is Nowrasteh an outspoken conservative, he is also a fervent member of the emerging network of right-wing people burrowing into the film industry with ulterior sectarian political and religious agendas, like Cunningham.

Nowrasteh's conservatism was on display when he appeared as a featured speaker at the Liberty Film Festival (LFF), an annual event founded in 2004 to premier and promote conservative-themed films supposedly too "politically incorrect" to gain acceptance at mainstream film festivals. This June, while The Path to 9/11 was being filmed, LFF founders Govindini Murty and Jason Apuzzo -- both friends of Nowrasteh -- announced they were "partnering" with right-wing activist David Horowitz. Indeed, the 2006 LFF is listed as "A Program of the David Horowitz Freedom Center."
As I've said before, if this miniseries has "dramatized" real events in a way that is inaccurate, ABC should correct those scenes. But for the left to be whining about this is rich.

"Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the Republican Party?"

"I respectfully refuse to answer on the grounds that it might tend to incriminate me."


 
Until Everyone Is Free To Marry!

I saw this announcement last night about how Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie announced that they aren't going to marry "until everyone is free to marry" and my wife and I both had the same thought: Warren Jeffs, polygamist and "husband" of little girls. Michael Williams beat me to the blog about this--and included some examples that make me want to laugh, such as this interspecies wedding from January:
JERUSALEM - Sharon Tendler met Cindy 15 years ago. She said it was love at first sight. This week she finally took the plunge and proposed. The lucky "guy" plunged right back.

In a modest ceremony at Dolphin Reef in the southern Israeli port of Eilat, Tendler, a 41-year-old British citizen, apparently became the world's first person to "marry" a dolphin. Dressed in a white dress, a veil and pink flowers in her hair, Tendler got down on one knee on the dock and gave Cindy a kiss. And a piece of herring.
You will recall my confusion a while back when I saw that supermodel Heidi Klum was marrying Seal--and I thought the headline referred to the marine mammal.

UPDATE: A reader asks:
Mr. Pitt left his wife for another woman and we're supposed to care about what he thinks about marriage?


 
I Love This Story--There's Just One Thing That Is Very Curious About It

It's from CNN:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Margaret Johnson might have looked like an easy target.

But when a mugger tried to grab a chain off her neck Friday, the 56-year-old Johnson, while riding in her wheelchair, pulled out her licensed .357 pistol and shot him, police said.

Johnson said she was in Manhattan's Harlem neighborhood on her way to a shooting range when the man, identified by police as 45-year-old Deron Johnson, came up from behind and went for the chain.

"There's not much to it," she said in a brief interview. "Somebody tried to mug me, and I shot him."

Deron Johnson was taken to Harlem Hospital with a single bullet wound in the elbow, police said. He faces a robbery charge, said Lt. John Grimpel, a police spokesman.

Margaret Johnson, who lives in Harlem, has a permit for the weapon and does not face charges, Grimpel said. She also was taken to the hospital with minor injuries and later released.

New York City is extraordinarily tight on issuing carry permits, except to the rich, powerful, and Mafia-connected. And some woman who lives in Harlem has a carry permit? My guess is that she has a "premises permit" to possess a pistol at her home or business (which are difficult, but not spectacularly hard to get), and she was probably in violation of the law carrying a loaded handgun to the range. Perhaps the police chose not to prosecute since she was clearly in need a loaded handgun, as the unfolding of events demonstrate.


 
Utah Supreme Court Rules The Utah Legislature Is In Charge of Making Utah Laws

The University of Utah has been arguing since at least 2001 that the state legislature isn't its boss, arguing that it may prohibit concealed carry of handguns on campus, even for those issued a Utah concealed carry permit. The University of Utah argues that it is the supreme authority of what happens on campus--not the Utah legislature, who think that because they created the University of Utah, and fund it, and write all other laws in effect in Utah, that their laws are supreme.

The Utah Supreme Court has finally ruled in the matter:
The state's highest court ruled Friday that the University of Utah has no right to ban guns on campus, rejecting the argument that prohibiting firearms is part of the school's power to control academic affairs.

Writing for the 4-1 majority, Utah Supreme Court Justice Jill Parrish said case law "is incompatible with the university's position."

"We simply cannot agree with the proposition that the Utah Constitution restricts the Legislature's ability to enact firearms laws pertaining to the university," Parrish wrote.

In a dissent, Chief Justice Christine Durham said policies that are reasonably connected to the school's academic mission are within its autonomous authority over academic affairs. Under the majority analysis, she said, "the university may not subject a student to academic discipline for flashing his pistol to a professor in class."

But no one will be permitted to carry a gun anytime soon on the campus, home to more than 44,000 students, faculty and staff members. Friday's ruling resolved only the state issues involved in the matter; the case now goes back to U.S. District Court in Salt Lake City for litigation of federal constitutional issues.
Now, argue if you want that this is a poor idea to allow concealed weapon permit holders to carry on campus, but to argue that the University of Utah has authority to decide what laws of the state of Utah it will allow? That's presumptuous.