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Clayton Cramer's BLOG |
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Clayton's commentary on news and events of the day. Broadly speaking, I'm a conservative with libertarian sympathies (getting more conservative as my children get older).
 Never forget! I'm running for Idaho state senate I've written a number of history books, as well as scholarly and popular articles, (see my web page).
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
24: An Addiction & Ruminations on Torture There aren't terribly many TV shows that I watch, and generally, they aren't shows on broadcast TV. I'm a big fan of Mythbusters. History Channel and Discovery Channel both have some quite well done shows--and occasionally, some real disappointments. My impression of History Channel has gone up a bit over the last five years. I used to often find myself watching documentaries on History Channel and finding lots of either minor errors or at least highly arguable interpretations. And not just in my area of specialization. I don't know if I am getting less demanding (not likely), or if they are getting better at what they choose to air. It is still generally fluff, but more accurate fluff than I recall back in 2001. One of the cable channels was running re-runs of 24 a couple of years back, and I ended up watching parts of seasons three and four--and it was addictive. My wife bought seasons one and two for my birthday, and now we are watching season four. If you haven't watched the show, there are several aspects that are unique. The format is that every episode covers one hour of a 24 hour day in the life of the Los Angeles office of the fictional Counter Terrorism Unit, as they respond to some crisis. They make some use of multiple screen images so you see stuff that is happening to different characters in disparate locations. The editing (at least of the three seasons that I have seen so far) is absolutely brilliant, and the use of musical score to set mood is outstanding. There are some aspects of the show that are profoundly depressing and gritty. I would like to think that there is more torture by government agents in 24 than there is in real life, but with what we know of waterboarding at places like Gitmo--maybe it isn't as far off as I would like to think. What I find powerful about 24's depiction of torture is that I suspect that it at least partly reflects what goes on in the real world--where people on our side do some pretty ugly things to get necessary information about terrorist plans. These are actions that most Americans would not want to know about, because it is horrible--but that are probably sometimes necessary to prevent great losses of life. And by torture, I don't mean playing Christina Aguilar music to prisoners at Gitmo. While 24 definitely has a good guys/bad guys dichotomy, it also has unpleasant reminders of the dangers of the use of torture. Once you cross the line into accepting the use of abusive techniques for getting information from bad guys, it is possible to make mistakes--sometimes very serious mistakes--about who is a bad guy. Season four has a couple of episodes that confront some of the consequences of getting too relaxed. This is a show that is pretty tough to watch in places. There are a number of torture sequences that are not terribly graphic, but any reasonably intelligent adult can put two and two together and realize what is implied--and it can be pretty unpleasant to think about. I would like to think that in the real world, the use of torture against suspected terrorists is rare, limited to suspects who are unquestionably terrorists, and limited to the minimum necessary level of suffering required to accomplish that end. I would also not be surprised if much of the use of torture is in the style of medieval torturers, who often were able to elicit information by merely showing the instruments of torture. To the extent that well-meaning sorts like John McCain want to make it clear that certain interrogation techniques will never be used by the United States, it creates a situation where this threat will not work. Indeed, putting terrorists on notice that we will not use torture may oddly enough create situations where we may have to actually use torture as part of interrogation. If a terrorist believes that the CIA is utterly precluded from using torture, the threat won't be persuasive; only the actual infliction of suffering will accomplish those ends. One aspect to 24 that I find frustrating is that much of the technology you see is almost real. Yes, there are an enormous number of traffic cameras and surveillance cameras out there. The full extent of how much America was already under surveillance came out in Timothy McVeigh's trial, when it turned out that there was a surprising amount of video coverage of many events involved in the case. On the other hand, the vast majority of the surveillance cameras out there simply don't have the resolution to do what we see done. You can't take your average 640x480 video camera output, zoom in 20x on the license plate on a moving car, and really expect to have a crisp, easy to read plate. There are some astonishingly crisp satellite images that are taken by the KH-12 and similar spy satellites, but they are in low orbits that are moving more than four miles per second. They can't take dozens of images of the same location a second or two apart. Much of the computer and network jargon is also utterly bogus--just close enough to the real thing that it sounds like it might be real, except if you know much about how computer and telecommunications networks actually work. Then it is just laughable! While I'm not current on telephone tracing technology, I'm pretty sure that most of the problems that our intrepid heroes in 24 have with tracing terrorist phone calls is grossly inaccurate. The transition from analog to digital telephone systems has dramatically changed this situation. I worked for a company many years ago that was requested as part of surveillance efforts to add certain capabilities to our switching equipment for law enforcement purposes, and I'm sure by now, trace time is measured not in minutes, but in fractions of a second. On the human side, 24 has some very strong points, and some very weak points. It shows human behavior at its worst (petty, jealous, pigheaded, greedy) and at its best--such as the willingness of CTU employees to sacrifice themselves for the greater good. Make no mistake about it--America has no shortage of men and women who put themselves in harm's way for our safety, in military service, in law enforcement, and in real world organizations not so different from 24's CTU. Sometimes they are everything we think of as honorable and wonderful; sometimes they are people doing dirty jobs that we don't want to examine too closely. As George Orwell observed, "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." On the downside, there are aspects to 24 that I find silly or unrealistic. Our hero Jack Bauer is too fearless, too resourceful, too strong, too capable. He is not without his faults, but in the real world, no one is that good. In the real world, teams of real people accomplish things that 24's Jack Bauer does all by himself. In the first two seasons, so much of the plot was wrapped around the ability of Bauer's daughter to get herself repeatedly into hazardous situations that I found myself thinking of Snidely Whiplash and Nell tied up on the railroad tracks. One plot device that 24 overuses involves good people who do wrong things because the bad guys have taken family members hostage. In the real world, especially in the Middle East, this happens a lot. Perhaps if George Soros, the ACLU, and friends get their way, this will become common in America as well. But it isn't realistic now. Most people who work in sensitive occupations, such as law enforcement, work pretty hard to keep their families secure and information about them hard to get. The other aspect of this that shows 24 is letting dramatic license take over is that almost anyone in counterterrorism work has to know that there will be no fair deals made. If someone takes your family hostage, the chances that they will be allowed to go free--with information that might lead to a later capture and conviction of the hostage takers--is about zero. There is one other aspect of the show that bothers me a lot. The second season--which was filmed after 9/11 but before the invasion of Iraq--had a premise involving European and American businessmen helping terrorists to set off a nuclear weapon in the U.S. to provoke a war in the Middle East--in order to drive up oil prices. It is so Michael Moore. There are other subplots in season three that also have evil businessmen involved as well. While there are Americans who have become involved with terrorist activities, here and abroad, they have, to my knowledge, always been driven by their religion, and never by greed. This bothers me, because it tends to blur what is the core of the terrorist threat that the U.S. faces. On the plus side, 24 doesn't pretend that our enemies are Russians, or Norwegians, or Jews. (Although season one, filmed before 9/11, involves Serbians, and season three is largely built around Mexican drug lords.) While not heavy handed, seasons two and four are clearly Middle Eastern Muslim fanatics, some of whom are sleeper cells. Labels: film reviews Understanding Conspiracy Theorists Ilya Somin over at Volokh Conspiracy proposes an explanation for why bizarre conspiracy theories enjoy such widespread support. This isn't just an American problem; I remember seeing several years ago that 40% of German young people were convinced that 9/11 was done by the U.S. government, and the Muslim world is even more awash in bizarre conspiracy theories to explain everything. I have an alternative explanation proposed by my wife that explains not only 9/11 Truther craziness, but much of the religious fervor associated with the global warming cult. One of the reasons why the 9/11 Truthers are so big is this very understandable psychological reaction to fear: If the greatest thing we as Americans have to fear is terrorists, then there's not much we can do about it, except hope that our government does its job well--while always obtaining all necessary warrants, and treating suspected, alleged, possible, maybe terrorists with tea and crumpets. On the other hand, if 9/11 was all an elaborate conspiracy by neo-cons, Jews, and all the rest of the enemies of the 9/11 Truthers, then there is something that can be done: electing a new government! That electing Obama or Kucinich or Nader isn't going to stop the terrorists--it will probably embolden them, if anything--doesn't matter. It is the desire to have something that you can do something about that drives this. In some ways, it is a weird form of Stockholm Syndrome. For a lot of Americans, they haven't literally been taken hostage by terrorists--but the prospect that at some point in the near future, terrorists might set off a nuclear weapon, or a dirty bomb, or crash airliners into an American city--has the same effect. It creates fear--and the only response to that fear that some people can imagine is to either deny the fear is real (9/11 Truther) or decide that our invasion of Iraq caused 9/11. (And yes, I know people who make statements almost that crazy--that America was attacked because we are the biggest bully in the world.) Global warming religious fervor has a somewhat similar component. If you are a person who can't do anything about terrorism--is there something that you can fix? I'm reminded of the story about the police officer who asks a man why he is crawling around under a street light. "I lost my contact lens over there" and points to an alley some distance away. "So why are you looking here, if you lost it over there?" "The light's better here." Labels: terrorism There Are People Who Aren't Trusted At Airports I found this link to this January 31, 2008 Washington Times article at Shooting the Messenger--and it makes me really angry: Yeah, we can't trust members of the U.S. armed forces to mingle with ordinary people in an airport terminal. Who knows what they might do? Wake up a lot of people to the sacrifices they are making? My wife says that Americans have forgotten 9/11. That's an understatement. It's like it never even happened. Labels: terrorism The Upper Tube Is Squeezed To Round I mentioned that using a bar spreader, I managed to finally stretch the short diameter of the upper tube assembly to within 1/8" of round--which is good enough. I can always adjust small discrepancies with washers. (If only I had--or could afford--a lathe large to turn a 20" ID piece of aluminum!) Anywhere, here it is.  Click to enlarge I still have to drill the hole in the side of the tube for the eyepiece focuser. That's a 2.25" diameter hole. Fortunately, I have a 2.25" hole saw. (The saw is actually more like 2.23", but I suspect that it will actually make it 2.25" by the time it gets done--and I can sand or file to make it a few thousandths of an inch larger.) I have been holding off on this operation until I had the new elliptical mirror that I am going to use--one that has a 3.1" minor axis. It has arrived. I bought it used for $100, including shipping, but I can't tell that it isn't new. Purportedly it is 1/10th wave flat. If you don't know what that means: it means that the across the surface of the mirror, there is no variation from flat that is more than 1/10th of a wavelength of blue-green light. If this seems like startling accuracy--opticians do this all the time. Or at least they advertise that they do it all the time, and I know the methods used for verification. Newton's Rings is an inteference phenomenon produced by the air gap between two surfaces. The example that Wikipedia gives involves a flat surface and a spherical surface, but the same technique can be used with a mirror of known flatness, and another mirror of unknown flatness. The air gap between them produces the rings--and the number of rings that you can see tells you how many wavelengths of light are involved. The pretty rings that you sometimes see on when oil is floating on water are produced by the same mechanism, apparently, and it was this that led to Newton's work on this. Labels: telescopes Friday, February 01, 2008
The Virtues of Single Payer Health Care It appears that some of the serious funding problems of the British National Health Service--problems that have caused them to withhold treatment for some very old patients who were considered not worth the cost of helping--have been completely solved! Or so I must assume, when I read an article like this, from the January 31, 2008 Daily Mail: Surrogate mothers could be given up to £15,000 of Health Service money to have children for gay couples, it emerged yesterday. While the focus of the headline is on surrogate mothers for homosexual couples that want kids, the real issue here is talk of having the government pay for a purely elective procedure that is very expensive when, according to the comments by Britons reading this story, the NHS is having to engage in serious cost control measures involving genuine health problems: This is not a life or death issue like the drugs being refused to thousands of people in Britain today who need them to survive. The reason being given by the health sevice for refusal is the cost.Of course, I believe that NHS already pays for elective procedures such as sex changes which are not only medically unnecessary, but you could make a strong case are indications of more serious psychological problems that need correction. Hence, the large percentage of British sex changes that leave the mutilated victim still confused and seeking more surgery. Labels: health care, homosexuality Less Fun With Snowthrowers Well, we thought the drive belt was bad. So we tried to find a replacement drive belt. No luck on finding the exact replacement part for the Troy-Bilt--only a Kevlar substitute of the right size which, after enormous struggle, we finally managed to install. But you know what? It didn't solve the problem. The augurs were still breaking up the snow, but the throwing part wasn't throwing it. Was it not turning? The throwing mechanism seemed to spin quite freely, and we could see the drive belt engaging the flywheel, that was attached to the shaft that turns the throwing part. But nothing was happening. So my wife asked, "Is there a pin on the thrower like there is on the augurs?" (This pin is designed to break before an obstruction damages the transmission.) I felt around, and soon found that the thrower was spinning freely because the welds that held it on the shaft had completely broken. Hmmm. I've had this $599 piece of equipment all of eight days, and it is already broken? So I call up Lowe's and whine, and they tell me where to take it--an authorized repair facility in the Boise area. So how to get this best down there? We had to rent a truck to bring it home last week. Fortunately, we traded in the Equinox for the Trailblazer--and the Troy-Bilt would just fit, with the handles removed. But how to pick up this beast and get in? It was too heavy for my wife and I to lift all the way up. Fortunately, my wife is a clever person, especially on spatial relationships (quite useful when trying to decode the less than clear instructions for replacing that drive belt) and we turned one of the office work tables that I used for machine tools into a ramp--and rolled the snowthrower up and into the back. The only real question now is how long it will take for the authorized repair center to get this fixed and back to us. In the meantime, we are using a technique recommended by a law professor who lives in the frozen north--pounding the snow down with the Trailblazer regularly. We still had to do a lot of digging with the snow shovel on some of the deeper drifts. The good news is that I don't have to feel guilty about enjoying a nice dinner out--shoveling snow is quite a workout. Obama & Islam I've been disinclined to believe that Barack Hussein Obama was an Islamic "Manchurian Candidate." I was more inclined to be concerned that his family background and early education might make him more sympathetic to Islam, and less sympathetic to Western values of tolerance. I have been concerned about some of the questions about Obama's involvement with sleazy people like Rezko. Then I see this curious news account from the February 1, 2008 Times of London--and it includes details that no one else has mentioned--such as Rezko's birthplace, and involvement with other Middle Easterners: Now a friend who is on the MoveOn mailing list tells me that: If there is anything that better demonstrates that Barack Obama is probably a threat to the national security of the United States than an endorsement by MoveOn, I can't imagine what it is.---------------------------- Original Message ---------------------------- Now, if you want to play politics with it, a Republican might argue that it would be good to have Obama win the Democratic nomination, because this would guarantee a Republican victory. There is still some racism in the United States, and there would be some voters--maybe 5% or so--who would vote against Obama because of his race. There is still some rationality in the United States, and Obama's endorsement by MoveOn and general delusionary attitude on foreign policy will cause another 30-40% of voters to vote against Obama. Obama as the nominee pretty much guarantees a Republican victory. But what if the Republican nominee (whoever it turns out to be) does something really, really outrageously horrifying just before the election? Would you want Obama to be president? I sure wouldn't, with all the peculiar and worrisome connections Obama seems to have. Americans of both parties need to pick the candidate most likely to keep America safe. Hillary Clinton is detestable, dishonest, and a great threat to civil liberties in the United States. But Clinton at least knows that we are at war. I would rather the Democrats pick someone I detest, even at the risk of making it hard for a Republican to win the presidency, rather than picking someone like Obama--and create the small but enormous risk that Obama ends up in the White House. Many years ago, I took advantage of California's first open primary in decades to vote for what I considered the weakest Democrat trying to get the Democratic nomination for governor. It turned out that Gray Davis wasn't weak at all. He easily won the general election, and screwed up California good and proper. No more Machiavellian politics for me. Each party needs to pick the best candidate that they can. I'm disappointed that Fred Thompson dropped out--although his showings were so poor that it made sense. I'm horrified by McCain, who might as well be a Democrat. I am uncomfortable with Romney's sudden conservativism. Giuliani strikes me as just too New York sleazy, and I don't particularly trust his recent conversion to supporting gun rights. Let's just say that I will be having a hard time figuring out what to do in the May primary here in Idaho. UPDATE: Just to clarify: I am not arguing for Clinton over McCain. I'm arguing that no one should support Obama over Clinton because Obama would be easy for the Republican nominee to beat. Labels: 2008 presidential candidates Fun With Snow Throwers The Troy-Bilt Storm 5524 snow thrower is a two stage unit. One stage are a series of blades (called augurs) that break the snow up, and feed it to a large spinning blade that then throws the show out an exit chute. Well, after replacing the pins again that hold the augur blades to the shaft that turns them, we noticed that the spinning blade was no longer turning. Was it perhaps prevented from moving by a rock? (This has happened several times now.) Nope. The blade will turn by hand. After a little troubleshooting, we found that the belt that drives that spinning blade is stretched enough that it doesn't likely turn anything with more resistance than a record turntable. (Younger readers may want to consult a museum to find out about these delightful pieces of technology.) Now that I think of it, one of the times that a rock locked that part, I saw smoke coming out--which was probably the drive belt cooking. Anyway: no local dealer has the drive belt in stock, but one of them has generic rubber drive belts. Since the stretched one is now 34 1/2" circumference, we're hoping the 34" version will fit. I suppose we better order some spares, while we're at it. Removing the belt was difficult, aggravated by the fact that all the parts were either covered with snow, or were still at snow temperatures, and a less than clear manual explaining how to remove the belt. I see why people put up with the unbelievable expense and aggravation of California politics. One reader suggested that a 5.5 hp snowthrower is probably not sufficient for snow the depth we are getting. Of course, this isn't a normal snowfall for here--at least, that's what I am hoping. It was also suggested that an ATV with a blade on the front would be a more pleasant solution than four passes with the snowthrower. At least you get to sit down while you are being pelted by icy wind, falling snow, and snow that the wind takes from the snowthrower's exit chute, and then blasts into your face. Another reader suggested concreting a 10 foot post into the ground at the top of the driveway, and mounting a winch on it--then just winching the Trailblazer up. Unfortunately, the driveway isn't straight. It has a couple of substantial turns to it, and this would be slow. I just need to keep this driveway clear. These people sell a snowplow kit for the Trailblazer. It's about $1300, however. On the plus side, we could quickly and easily clear the driveway, the private road beyond that, and the Old Highway if need be. UPDATE: And this snowplow for the Trailblazer is quite a bit more reasonably priced--under $500. I suppose that I should start finding some product reviews--and how complex it is to mount this. UPDATE 2: There is the question of voiding the warranty by putting on a snow plow. Understandably, that's not usually considered an appropriate passenger vehicle use. It might make sense to buy an ATV and a plow for it. That also means that if you get home at night, and the driveway is impassable, you can walk up the hill, and plow the road. It wouldn't make sense to drive around with the plow on the Trailblazer. Thursday, January 31, 2008
Not The Worst Day of My Life... But certainly the worst in several years, that's for sure. I telecommute four days a week. Thursdays I have a meeting with my boss and the rest of his group. I tried to drive out in my wife's AWD Equinox. I got down the driveway okay, but on Sunburst Road, I ran out of traction--and slid back into a snowbank. I was thoroughly stuck. Some of this might be the tires, mostly, I think, it is because AWD is not a substitute for four wheel drive. When there is almost no traction on any tire, AWD seems to make very poor decisions about where to put the power. So my wife insists that we get the Equinox out of our subdivision, and look for a replacement with full-time 4WD. After a lot of unpleasant discoveries (even the Subarus aren't truly full-time 4WD), we ended up trading in the Equinox on a 2007 Chevy Trailblazer with 11,000 miles. This was expensive, at least partly because we still owe more on the Equinox than it is worth--it has 60,000 miles on it. Before we signed the papers, we drove the Trailblazer up to our house. It was certainly far superior to the Equinox--climbed the driveway without a single concern. I did high center on the snowdrifts in the front yard, but managed to rock it off, and head back to the dealer. So three hours later, we are back to the house--and there is another foot or more of snow everywhere. We could not climb the driveway. Even the snowthrower couldn't negotiate the driveway--just too deep. And it is getting worse. So I have wasted the entire day, gotten no work done (so I'll be working Saturday). I've spent a pile of money, I'm cold, sore, and mentally exhausted. Al Gore, could you bring your hot air about global warming to Idaho? Oh yes, I see that Boise State had a conference on the subject yesterday and today--and all evening classes were canceled because of the ferocity of the snowstorm we're having. UPDATE: I understand that BSU did have to cancel the second part of their global warming conference because of the snowstorm. Labels: global warming Wednesday, January 30, 2008
When The Weather Is This Bad Only dogsleds and teams of huskies make sense. Now the wife's Equinox is stranded on the private road--at least, not blocking it too badly. Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Rock Coming By For those of you with a clear sky, this article tells how to find the 800 foot asteroid that will be passing by only 1.4x the distance of the Moon tonight. I've given up. Last night was wondrously clear (but too cold to be outside). Today, we're waiting for polar bears to migrate outside our windows. It has been snowing all day--not spectacularly hard, and you Michiganers and North Dakotans would probably say that this isn't really snow, since we don't need to exit through a second story window (as if we had one). But I can guarantee we won't be watching the big rock passing by. By the way, if an 800 foot asteroid doesn't sound big to you, remember that the kinetic energy of an object is calculated from 1/2 x mass x velocity squared. I've read that the meteor that gouged out the Canyon Diablo crater in Arizona was about 100 feet across--and the hole is more than 4000 feet in diameter. By the way, if you are ever in northern Arizona, make sure that you stop and visit. This is one of the few really important geologic features in the United States that is privately owned, and they do a good job of it. Bond Yields For those prepared to take some risk, there are some astonishing deals available. Countrywide Home Mortgages, which was just acquired by Bank of America, has a number of S&P BBB+ rated bonds with maturities in the months to a 1 1/2 year range with annualized yields to maturity above 9%--in some cases, above 10%. (I just bought bonds due in July 2009 with an annualized YTM of more than 11%.) I wouldn't encourage you to put a lot of your portfolio into such bonds. It seems unlikely that Countrywide--or rather Bank of America, who now owns them--will default on these bonds--especially since falling interest rates may solve some of Countrywide's problem with subprime mortgages--but it does provide a way to sweeten the return on your portfolio with, I think, less risk than many stocks right now. College Has Changed Since I Was A Freshman Back in 1974, at USC. Dorms were still sex-segregated, and while the opposite sex could visit, they had to be out by 2:00 AM. Yes, it was perhaps a bit hypocritical to pretend that this was preventing the students from having sex, but I'm not sure that this upcoming program at William & Mary is better. From the January 28, 2008 Daily Press: WILLIAMSBURG - College of William and Mary President Gene Nichol gave students the go-ahead this morning to hold the controversial Sex Workers' Art Show on campus next month.I'm sure that there are some "artists, innovators, and geniuses" among "strippers, prostitutes, and other sex workers"--just like I am sure that there are some "artists, innovators, and geniuses" picking up garbage for the sanitation company (you know, the garbage man in the Dilbert comic strip)--but somehow, I am just a bit skeptical. I suspect that if most Americans realized the extent that universities waste resources on trash like this (and there are a lot of examples out there), you would see a lot less enthusiasm for spending public money on these institutions. There is clearly a need for a lot more supervision of the children--and I am not talking about the students! Labels: academic integrity You Have No Choice Refuse to be a photographer at a same-sex "commitment ceremony"--and get hauled into court. And not in Canada, but in the United States: Homosexuality. Freedom. Pick one. UPDATE: Here is the probable cause for a hearing complaint letter, the complaint itself, and the charge of discrimination. Labels: homosexuality The Real Danger To Homosexuals It isn't traditionalists in America who believe that the government should not recognize same-sex marriage, or add homosexuals to the list of protected groups. It is the emerging Islamist movement. Bruce Bawer has a column here about how homosexuals like himself used to feel reasonably safe in European cities--but not anymore: It is well worth reading, because he points out that for all the whining about religious conservatives in Europe (what, all five of them?) from the left, the greatest hazard to homosexuals there isn't going to be disapproval, but the willingness of multicultural leftists in Europe to tolerate shari'a law being applied there: Yet politicians, journalists, activists, and others who cling to the multicultural mindset can’t bring themselves to acknowledge the Islamic foundations of all this bullying. Instead, they offer the same kind of nonsense that was served up by a Human Rights Watch spokesman after the Chris Crain incident. “There’s still an extraordinary degree of racism in Dutch society,” that spokesman said. “Gays often become the victims of this when immigrants retaliate for the inequities they have to suffer.”The fact is that as Muslims become a sizable fraction of the population of European cities, politicians like Livingstone and Cohen decide that it makes sense to play to that crowd. America isn't at that stage yet--but I am beginning to think that it may be time to find some way to discourage Muslims from moving to the United States, perhaps by revival of the national origins quotas used until 1965. Obviously, a lot of Muslims come to America because they do not want to live under shari'a law--but there are a lot who come here to enjoy the economic benefits of living in a free society, while retaining attitudes that are contrary to the American values of relatively minimal government and tolerance for differing religious beliefs. Ah, you say, discouraging Muslims from moving here isn't very tolerant. There comes a moment when you have to draw some lines--and tolerance for intolerant philosophies is societal suicide. In Europe, Islam is going to take over because non-Muslims Europeans have stopped reproducing, while Muslims are having kids. In America, we are not quite to that level, but the combination of immigration and reproduction means that we have to worry, in a couple of generations, of Muslims being such a major voting bloc that our foreign policy is driven by Muslim interests, not American interests. The left end of the Democratic Party is already controlled by a mixture of multicultural delusion, the desire to make Muslims happy (especially terrorist front organizations like CAIR), and the Michael Moore/Noam Chomsky collection of America-haters. There are disturbing signs that the Republican Party could similarly be infected. Labels: homosexuality, immigration, Islamism Another Dog Bites Man Story This isn't even news, because it is so common. But I keep hoping that the drumbeat of me posting these stories will get the message across. From the January 29, 2008 San Francisco Chronicle: It was a surprise to hear gunfire up among the upscale apartments and condominiums on Russian Hill, a shock to see a panhandler waving a knife, and an absolute stunner to hear that when police fired on the man they killed him. Everyone would agree that it was a terrible, scary, unfortunate tragedy.The column goes on to quote Willie Brown (a liberal's liberal) as acknowledging what the core problem is here--and it isn't capitalism, or Ronald Reagan, but the profound error of deinstitutionalization. The column points out that the excuses don't make any sense: Why, over and over, are they put in such a dangerous, volatile situation? Why are any of us? Labels: deinstitutionalization Monday, January 28, 2008
Hillary Clinton, Immigration, & Due Process I'm really impressed with Hillary Clinton's willingness to go from raving idiot in favor of illegal immigration to raving idiot in opposition in a matter of weeks. From the January 28, 2008 New York Sun: "Anybody who committed a crime in this country or in the country they came from has to be deported immediately, with no legal process. They are immediately gone," Mrs. Clinton told a town hall meeting in Anderson, S.C., Thursday. On Wednesday, she told a crowd in North Bergen, N.J., that such criminals "absolutely" need to be deported. A day earlier, she told a rally in Salinas, Calif., that aliens with criminal records "should be deported, no questions asked."I think that an illegal alien who has been convicted of a serious crime should be deported. But then again, I think an illegal alien should be deported, period. But "no legal process"? There are some serious abuses of the immigration law right now, and these need to be brought under control, but when a lawyer starts to say "no legal process" I get nervous. Legal processes that need to be in play include: 1. Verifying that this person is, in fact, an illegal alien. There are U.S. citizens of Hispanic origin who have been deported to Mexico. This is unlawful, and morally wrong. 2. If the person is charged with a serious crime, they need to be tried and convicted before deportation. Why? So we can be sure that we got the right guy for the crime. If the crime is capital, deporting them is being too easy on them. If they are found innocent, they still need deportation for being an illegal alien. But it is important to know who committed the crime. Idaho Legislature Wants To Do Something About Global Warming I understand that the leftists in the Idaho legislature (and yes, we have them) want to "do something" about global warming. The Senate Resources and Environment Committee is apparently considering a bill today on the subject. Here's the note that I sent to several members of the committee: I understand that your committee is considering a proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Idaho. You might want to consider broadening the scope of your efforts. NASA reports that Mars, too, is experiencing global warming. See this article from National Geographic and from the Times of London concerning this. There are also less persuasive pieces of evidence concerning Neptune, such as this article from Geophysical Research Letters. Labels: global warming Interest Rates: Heading Down I ran into an acquaintance who is a financial advisor with Merrill Lynch over the weekend. She told me that corporate is telling them to expect another 1/2% rate cute by the end of the year, and a federal funds rate in 2009 of 2%. (Last week the Fed cut the federal funds rates by 3/4% to 3.5%.) This morning's stock market turmoil suggests that indeed, there are more interest rates coming. This would seem to be a good time to do some of the following, if you are sitting on a lot of cash: 1. Buy long-term Treasuries, even though interest rates aren't very good, with the expectation of selling them as interest rates fall, and making some money on the increase in the value of the bonds. 2. If you are really risk averse, or inflation wary, buy bonds with maturities of 3-5 years, so that you have decent returns over the next couple of years while interest rates fall. 3. If you are prepared to take some risks, buy real estate while it is still somewhat bargain priced. Falling interest rates will eventually drive up real estate prices. (This assumes that a recession doesn't wipe out so many jobs that it makes real estate buyers disappear.) Sunday, January 27, 2008
The Professor and the Madman I just finished reading Simon Winchester's The Professor and the Madman: A Tale of Murder, Insanity, and the Making of the Oxford English Dictionary. I won't be giving much away if I tell you the outline of this--you can figure it out from the introduction and the cover. One of the single most prolific contributors to the creation of the Oxford English Dictionary--one of the greatest, most astonishingly ambitious research tools of all time--was confined to a British insane asylum at the time. He was a American, a surgeon who shortly after the Civil War, spiraled down into paranoid schizophrenia. The book examines in detail some of the possible explanations: traumatic, barbaric actions he was required to take during the war; growing up in a missionary family in Ceylon, and suffering great moral conflict between his desire for the native girls (not women) and what he knew was right. But as much as Winchester explores these explanations, I find myself looking at Dr. Minor's age--he was in his very early 30s when the U.S. Army retired him as disabled--and I think that looking for an environmental explanation is unnecessary. Schizophrenia strikes most people in their late teens to mid-20s--with a few outliers afflicted both younger and a bit older. This is one of those tales that has tragedy to it--lots of tragedy. It is also a reminder that as bad as insane asylums of the Victorian period were supposed to be, somehow, in a controlled environment, where Dr. Minor could no longer kill anyone--and without any medical treatment available at all--Dr. Minor managed to redirect his enormous talents and love of scholarship into an activity that left the world a better place after his death. Labels: deinstitutionalization Flying Hotspots? I was in Boise a few days ago, waiting for my wife to run various errands, and I had my notebook with me. I thought, "What's the chance that I can find a wireless hotspot that isn't encrypted so that I can check my email?" I searched for wireless networks--and I found a couple of them that appeared. They were weak, but I seemed to be able to connect to them--and then they disappeared. About five miles away, an hour or two later, I tried again--and again, two wireless networks showed up--and then disappeared. A few minutes later--one of them showed back up again--and then disappeared again. And while one of these mysterious wireless networks had what was obviously the Linksys default name, the other had the name "Jet Blue Hot Spot." Was it possible that I was seeing passenger jets on approach to Boise International? They might be at 10,000 feet or less--which is less than two miles--just barely within the range that I would find possible. This might explain why I would see them, then they disappeared, then reappeared a few minutes later. It might be the same plane, flying in a circle, or multiple Jet Blue planes all configured with the same wireless network name. Global Warming Really Is A Problem Yup, people are dying in avalanches...near Los Angeles. From the January 27, 2008 Washington Post: LOS ANGELES -- A series of avalanches in the mountains outside of Los Angeles killed three people after sweeping backcountry slopes in the San Gabriel Mountains, authorities said Saturday.When was the last time that avalanche deaths near Los Angeles were a major news item? When the polar bears start killing environmentalists in Bali for global warming conferences--then the news media may start to ask questions. Labels: global warming DC Incompetence Arms and the Law points to this January 22, 2008 Washington Post editorial about a gross failure of the DC criminal justice system. It is a reminder of why they have strict gun control laws there--because the alternative is for the criminal justice system to work: D'ANGELO THOMAS, 18, was arrested in the early hours of Oct. 11 with three other men after D.C. police found five guns in the car they were riding in. Mr. Thomas had a previous gun conviction, but when he appeared the next day before a magistrate in D.C. superior court, the case was dismissed. Two weeks later, Mr. Thomas was arrested again, this time on a murder charge.If the Supreme Court rules in our favor about the current suit, it won't affect charges like those brought against these defendants. If DC wants to require concealed weapon permits to carry guns in the District, and those permits are available, as they are in most states, to people more than 21 years of age without a criminal history, that won't be a problem. Pretty clearly, this bunch wouldn't qualify for permits, and would still be subject to arrest and prosecution. One of the recurring problems with overbroad gun control laws is that by attempting to make everyone into a criminal, they make it very difficult to focus on those people who are really the problem. The average person isn't a hazard because they own a gun--a relatively small percentage of the population who have violent criminal behavior histories, and who need to be disarmed. Labels: gun rights |
