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Clayton Cramer's BLOG

Clayton's commentary on news and events of the day. Broadly speaking, I'm a conservative with libertarian sympathies (getting more conservative as my children get older).



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Friday, February 22, 2008
 
Big Bertha 2.0: Something That I Didn't Think About

It finally came time to mount Big Bertha 2.0 on the equatorial mount today--and I ran into a problem that I now realize is pretty significant. Deformation along the length of the telescope isn't a problem (especially now that I have switched the rail that the dovetail plate attaches to from 1/16" wall to 1/8" wall). But I hadn't considered the problem of deformation across the telescope. It was immediately apparent that when over at an angle, the primary mirror assembly would twist the rail quite severely.

I think the problem here is that all the stress of the primary mirror assembly is being transferred to the one rail to which the dovetail plate attaches. Within the existing design, I can see the following possible solution:

1. Add three more rails, so that I get a hexagon. This only adds about five more pounds to the telescope.

2. Add supports that transfer the load that is currently entirely on one rail (and at the bottom part of the rail alone, where most of the weight is) to distribute the load to the other five rails. This might be something as simple as using 1" square aluminum tube sections to connect all six rails together. This involves making a series of 60 degrees cuts (easy with the chop saw), then drilling and tapping holes that will allow them to lock to the rails going lengthwise. At least at the moment, I am having a little trouble figuring out exactly how this will work. The 1" square tubes are stiff enough, however, that I suspect that it would not take a lot of these segments to do the job. Remember that they don't have to be terribly strong themselves; they just need to stiff enough to transfer the load that is currently on one rail to the other five rails.

UPDATE: It occurs to me that the big problem isn't even twisting of the telescope itself--but that the lower assembly (which is very heavy, because of the mirror) is twisting on the rail because there is a single point of contact (round surface on a flat surface). Perhaps using an aluminum extrusion that consists of two right angles might work better. In that case, the round tubes drop into the extrusion. The tube then rests not only on a single point of contact, but also against the two uprights. In this case, a 4" wide base with two uprights would prevent the rotation across the flat surface.

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McGovern, 1972

The only good thing about being old is that you get to say, "I've seen this idiocy before!" It is increasingly apparent that the Democrats are planning to reprise the 1972 election--with a Republican that many Republicans didn't like, because he wasn't very conservative (the 55 mph national speed limit, wage and price controls) running against a very liberal Democrat that talked a lot about idealism.

A little background for those of you aren't old enough to remember the age of disco, leisure suits, waiting in line to buy gasoline, and a time when no one worried about STDs. In 1968, Eugene McCarthy tried to get the Democratic Party nomination away from V.P. Hubert Humphrey--a machine liberal politician, but one identified far too closely with President Lyndon Johnson and the Vietnam War. Democratic Party activists, however much they might have sympathized with McCarthy's "flower power" campaign (remember those little plastic flower appliques that antiwar activists put on their VW Beetles?), recognized that giving the nomination to a bunch of pot-smoking, antiwar, long-haired hippies, was going to be the twentieth century's equivalent of the Children's Crusade.

For those who don't know--the Children's Crusade was a thirteenth century effort by children to retake the Holy Land where their adult ancestors had failed. The children, being of holy and pure spirits, would succeed where the sinful adults had failed. Many of them never even got close to the Holy Land, and unsurprisingly, after arranging for sea transport, a large number were sold into Muslim slavery. Purity and good intentions aren't enough.

Anyway, Humphrey ended up getting the Democratic nomination in 1968, and came darn close to winning the election (perhaps helped by George Wallace's independent run for President). By the time the 1972 Democratic primary race was under way, the hippies had cut their hair, found suits, proudly took over the Democratic Party, and picked a far left Democrat, George McGovern, to lead the party over a cliff. And boy did he ever! He won Massachusetts (and I think, DC). He didn't even carry his own state, South Dakota.

What the was magic trick to this? Contrary to what some tenured radicals want to believe, Watergate isn't what won Nixon the election. If anything, the small amount of bad press from it probably hurt Nixon slightly. What did it was that McGovern had been very far to the left, and had emphasized that during the primaries. He was, after all, trying to appeal to a faction of the Democratic Party that Nixon's campaign characterized as "acid, amnesty, and abortion." From my recollections of the time, that was an exaggeration, but it was not without some basis in fact. ( And I think my memories are more trustworthy than your graying professor's memories, because I seem to be one of about 48 members of my generation that did not smoke pot or drop acid during that time.)

During the general election, McGovern's campaign tried to run away from his radical positions--and one especially powerful Nixon ad showed McGovern's picture on a weathervane, spinning back and forth between his primary statements, and his general election statements. The radical positions upset lots of voters--and the flip-flopping, I suspect, upset radical voters who were still suffering from the delusive idealism of McCarthy's Children's Crusade.

Barack Hussein Obama is, by any sensible standard, pretty far to the left--and some of the positions that he has taken should just about guarantee a McCain victory in November. I've mentioned his position in support of restrictive gun control--a position that is going to force at least ten million voters to vote for McCain. (Many of them would do so anyway, but Obama's position on this will guarantee it.)

I see that Obama has also taken another quite divisive position--and one that puts him in the minority, by a large margin:
Q: What us your view on the decision on partial-birth abortion and your reaction to most of the public agreeing with the court's holding?

A: I think that most Americans recognize that this is a profoundly difficult issue for the women and families who make these decisions. They don't make them casually. And I trust women to make these decisions in conjunction with their doctors and their families and their clergy. And I think that's where most Americans are. Now, when you describe a specific procedure that accounts for less than 1% of the abortions that take place, then naturally, people get concerned, and I think legitimately so. But the broader issue here is: Do women have the right to make these profoundly difficult decisions? And I trust them to do it.

Source: 2007 South Carolina Democratic primary debate, on MSNBC Apr 26, 2007
Pro-life voters, of course, are going to be unlikely to vote for Obama, but partial-birth abortion is such a repulsive procedure that even most pro-choice voters are prepared to make an exception, and ban it. An August, 2007 Pew Research survey found that 75% of Americans wanted it to be illegal--only 17% thought it should be legal. McCain's support for stem cell research, which is the major black mark against him for pro-life voters, is pretty minor compared to support for partial-birth abortion.

Here's a twofer: an area where he gets to upset not just smokers, but those who understand that the Constitution's division of powers between states and the federal government limits what the federal government can do:
Q: Over 400,000 Americans have premature death due to smoking or secondhand smoke. Would you be in favor of a national law to ban smoking in all public places?

A: I think that local communities are making enormous strides, and I think they're doing the right thing on this. If it turns out that we're not seeing enough progress at the local level, then I would favor a national law. I don't think we've seen the local laws play themselves out entirely, because I think you're seeing an enormous amount of progress in Chicago, in New York, in other major cities around the country. And because I think we have been treating this as a public health problem and educating the public on the dangers of secondhand smoke, that that pressure will continue. As I said, if we can't provide these kinds of protections at the local level, which would be my preference, I would be supportive of a national law.

Q: Have you been successful in stopping smoking?

A: I have. You know, the best cure is my wife.

Source: 2007 Democratic primary debate at Dartmouth College Sep 6, 2007
Fortunately, there's only one of Michelle Obama to go around. (I'll resist the urge to make a crude joke about this.)

Now, if I were going to just take a Machiavellian view, I would say, "Excellent! Obama will guarantee a McCain victory!" But as I have explained in the past, there are real dangers in taking this approach. We need the best candidate from each party, because you never know what craziness can happen--and there is a war on, you know.

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Mercury, CFLs, Global Warming, Migraines, & Breast Cancer

What else can I drag into this seemingly implausible combination? I mentioned a couple of days ago in an posting about the connection between overillumination and breast cancer that some experts are concerned because compact fluorescent light bulbs are likely to actually aggravate the breast cancer issue relative to incandescents.

One of my readers told me that he had to remove the compact fluorescent bulbs from his home because they gave his wife migraine headaches--and when I searched scholar.google.com for articles, I was surprised to find quite a bit of discussion of how the non-visible flicker associated with fluorescent bulbs seems to be related to migraine headaches.

Of course, compact fluorescents have mercury in them--and this article over at FoxNews points out that many of the environmentalists who are now pushing CFLs, just a few years ago, were warning how dangerous they were because of mercury--and now that the environmentalists have persuaded Congress and President Bush to sign a mandatory CFL law (phasing out incandescent bulbs by 2012)--they are asking the lawyers to start suing:

But the partnership is about to implode. As predictable as Lucy pulling away the football from a determinedly charging Charlie Brown, the environmentalists are preparing to turn the tables on the CFL businesses and consumers.

The signal came in a Feb. 17 New York Times editorial entitled "That Newfangled Light Bulb."

The editorial read, in part, "Across the world, consumers are being urged to … switch to [CFLs]. ... Now the question is how to dispose of [CFLs] once they break or quit working … each [CFL] has a tiny bit of a dangerous toxin … almost 300 million CFLs were sold in the U.S. last year. That is already a lot of mercury to throw in the trash and the amounts will grow ever larger in coming years … the dangers are real and growing."

The Times piece continued, "Businesses and government recyclers need to start working on more efficient ways to deal with that added mercury. Ellen Silbergeld, a professor of environmental health at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, is raising the cry about the moment when millions of these light bulbs start landing in landfills or incinerators all at once. The pig in the waste pipeline, she calls it."

Aside from the editorial’s implicit targeting instructions for eco-agitators and trial lawyers, I could only chuckle at the editorial’s nod to, and partial disclosure about, Silbergeld. For many years, she was a "senior scientist" with Environmental Defense who, before moving on to left-wing academia, excelled at fomenting dubious scares about "toxic" substances in the environment.

During Silbergeld’s days with Environmental Defense in the 1990s, the group’s pitch to the media was "when fluorescent bulbs are crushed, traces of mercury vaporize and enter the atmosphere. If the lamps are buried, the toxic element seeps into the soil."

Until the Times editorial, the activists and the media had been holding back their customary attacks against mercury-containing fluorescent light bulbs.

In lamenting the bulbs, Clean Water Action told the media in 1997, for example, that the mercury level in tuna is so high that a 35-pound child eating more than 2 ounces a week would exceed the EPA’s "safe" level.

But while CFL-mandating legislation was pending in Congress, the enviros did a temporary flip-flop: Environmental Defense began pooh-poohing mercury concerns stating, "In short, the exposure from breaking a CFL is in about the same range as the exposure from eating a can or two of tuna fish."

Two ounces of tuna used to be a horror, but in the name of CFLs, two cans became no problem.

Of course, the environmentalist about-face is because they decided that anthropogenic global warming (which may or may not be happening, and is likely not anthropogenic) is more important than mercury poisoning (which is very real).

One of these days, the environmentalist/ambulance chaser scam is going to become visible to the average American. I just hope that they haven't completely bankrupted the country paying for CFLs, the reduced productivity because of migraine headaches, treating hundreds of thousands of extra cases of breast cancer and caused massive mercury poisoning before that point is reached.

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John Delling

I've previously mentioned John Delling, who was being tried for multiple murders. From an Associated Press story in the February 21, 2008 Idaho Statesman:
BOISE, Idaho — A Boise man is mentally unfit to stand trial because his paranoid schizophrenia prevents him from helping his attorneys fight a first-degree murder charge, a court-appointed psychologist said.

John Delling, 21, is charged with killing two Idaho men and wounding another in Arizona during a 6,500-mile road trip across the West last spring.

Boise-based clinical psychologist Dr. Chad Sombke did a mental health evaluation requested by Delling's attorneys and made public at a hearing Wednesday.

Ada County Deputy Prosecutor Roger Bourne asked 4th District Judge Deborah Bail for time to have a different psychologist study the results of Delling's evaluation before deciding whether he wants to challenge the findings.

This other news story by Patrick Orr, also in the February 21, 2008 Idaho Statesman, goes into more detail:

During a jailhouse interview in June, Delling told the Statesman that he was possessed and had no control over his body. He also said he had been diagnosed as schizophrenic. After his arrest, Delling's family sent a letter to the Statesman, saying, "John was very sick and needed more than this system had to offer."

Former neighbors and friends also said Delling had shown signs of mental illness for years. Those close to Delling have said he often talked about people stealing his "aura" and "powers."

All accounts that I have read suggest that Delling's parents made attempts to get psychiatric help for him in high school, and were unsuccessful. Again, it isn't clear how much of this problem can be laid at the feet of deinstitutionalization, and how much is the result of failure of the system to appreciate how troubled he was.

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Another Tragedy

From the February 22, 2008 Spokane, Washington Spokesman-Review:

Bryan Kim, the mentally ill teenager convicted by a Spokane jury last month of murdering his parents, will spend the rest of his life in prison with no possibility of parole.

Before his sentencing Thursday by Spokane County Superior Court Judge Tari Eitzen, Kim rose and asked for the 44-year sentence his public defender had proposed as an alternative to life behind bars – a request Eitzen denied.

...

Katherine Dillman, Kim’s maternal aunt, asked in her letter for mercy for her nephew. She criticized the Spokane County prosecutor’s office for not accepting a plea bargain that would have kept Kim out of prison, and she criticized her dead sister as a “very controlling individual” who charged Bryan for rent, food and his medicine for bipolar disease.

M. Rose Stowell, another maternal aunt, lashed out at the jury for seeming to ignore Kim’s “documented history of mental illness.”

“This is a young man who fell through the cracks, did not receive proper treatment or diagnosis, causing him to spiral out of control,” she wrote. Stowell asked Eitzen to place her nephew in a safe environment with treatment and consistent medication.


Jessica Kim did not speak in court. In her letter to Eitzen, she said she’d “battled with the ideas of love and family” in the aftermath of her parents’ deaths.

“Despite everything he has done, my brother is still my close family, and I still love him,” Kim wrote, noting she’d kept his commissary account full of money so he could buy extras while in the Spokane County Jail and provided “respectable clothes” for him to wear in court.

However, Kim noted she’d be marrying soon and plans to have children. “I do not trust that I can keep my family safe with Bryan at large. ... I see his release at any point as a major threat to that family,” she wrote.

Kim was found guilty in January of two counts of first-degree murder for stabbing his father, Richard Kim, and bludgeoning and strangling his mother, Terri Kim, on Dec. 5, 2006, as they returned to their Mount Spokane home after work. He was also convicted of second-degree possession of stolen property and second-degree theft for taking his father’s bank card and transferring $1,000 from his parents’ account to his the day after the murders.

Chief Criminal Deputy Prosecutor Jack Driscoll told the jury that Kim planned the murders because he was angry his parents were about to kick him out of the house after escalating arguments over his grades and his failure to take his medications. He called the murders an execution.

Kim’s lawyer, public defender John Stine, brought in a forensic psychiatrist from Texas, Dr. Michael Arambula, a national expert on childhood mental illness. Arambula said Kim was incapable of planning the murders because of his bipolar disease – and couldn’t remember what he’d done.

But the jury apparently was swayed by the state’s psychiatrist, Dr. William Grant of Eastern State Hospital, who said Kim suffered from “anti-social personality disorder,” not bipolar illness, and was capable of planning the crimes even though he couldn’t remember them.


I'm not sure that this qualifies as a deinstitutionalization failure; there isn't enough information to say for sure, one way or the other. But I find myself wondering how long Kim's parents had been struggling with an out of control kid.

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Idaho Press-Tribune Published My Piece

about deinstitutionalization's failure. Read it here.

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Thursday, February 21, 2008
 
Coincidence?

The first part of the story is worrisome--but I could almost believe his claim that he hollowed out this book to hide money and drugs. From the February 20, 2008 Pinellas County, Florida Suncoast News:
TAMPA - A 21-year-old Clearwater man was arrested at Tampa International Airport this weekend after security personnel found a box cutter in a hollowed-out book, authorities said.

About 7:30 a.m. Sunday, airport security ran Benjamin Baines Jr.'s backpack through an X-ray machine and saw the image of a box cutter, according to a report from the Transportation Security Administration.

When searching the backpack, a security officer found a book titled "Fear Itself." The book was hollowed out, and the box cutter was inside.

After Baines was read his rights, he said his cousin had cut away the pages to make the hollow section in the book. Later, reports state, he said he had hollowed it out himself to hide money and marijuana from his roommates.

Baines told officers he was moving to Las Vegas and forgot the cutter was in the book.
The other books that Baines had with him were...interesting:
Officers found books in the backpack titled "Muhammad in the Bible," "The Prophet's Prayer" and "The Noble Qur'an." He also had a copy of the Quran and the Bible.
What are the odds that this guy wasn't engaged in some sort of dry run to see how good TSA is?

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Bright Meteor

Idaho Air National Guard surveillance video of the incoming meteor--very impressive!


Wednesday, February 20, 2008
 
Sexual Abuse & Adult Homosexuality

There's a surprising number of journal articles about this subject. The abstracts alone are pretty telling. Lynda S. Doll, "Self-Reported Childhood and Adolescent Sexual Abuse among Adult Homosexual and Bisexual Men," Child Abuse and Neglect: The International Journal, v16 n6 p855-64 Nov-Dec 1992:
This study of 1,001 adult homosexual and bisexual men found that 37% reported they had been encouraged or forced to have sexual contact with an older or more powerful partner before age 19. Median age at first contact was 10. Ninety-three percent of participants reporting early sexual contact were classified as sexually abused.
Median age at first contact was 10?

Beitchman JH, Zucker KJ, Hood JE, daCosta GA, Akman D, Cassavia E., "A review of the long-term effects of child sexual abuse," Child Abuse Negl. 1992;16(1):101-18:

Adult women with a history of childhood sexual abuse show greater evidence of sexual disturbance or dysfunction, homosexual experiences in adolescence or adulthood, depression, and are more likely than nonabused women to be revictimized.
By the same authors: "A review of the short-term effects of child sexual abuse," Child Abuse Negl. 1991;15(4):537-56:
This is the first of a two-part report that critically evaluates empirical studies on the short- and long-term effects of child sexual abuse. With the exception of sexualized behavior, the majority of short-term effects noted in the literature are symptoms that characterize child clinical samples in general. Among adolescents, commonly reported sequelae include sexual dissatisfaction, promiscuity, homosexuality, and an increased risk for revictimization.

Here's an article that isn't specifically addressing homosexuality, but that is the major risk factor in the U.S. for HIV--which is what this study examines. S Zierler, L Feingold, D Laufer, P Velentgas, I Kantrowitz-Gordon and K Mayer, " Adult survivors of childhood sexual abuse and subsequent risk of HIV infection," American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 81, Issue 5 572-575:
METHODS: In an adult cohort enrolled to investigate causes of transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, we identified current behaviors affecting risk of infection that were associated with a history of early sexual abuse. One hundred and eighty-six individuals provided information on the occurrence of abuse and subsequent sexual and drug using activities. RESULTS: Approximately half of the women and one-fifth of the men reported a history of rape during childhood or adulthood. Twenty-eight percent of the women and 15 percent of the men recalled that they had been sexually assaulted during childhood. People who reported childhood rape compared with people who did not were four times more likely to be working as prostitutes (90 percent confidence interval = 2.0, 8.0). Women were nearly three times more likely to become pregnant before the age of 18 (90% CI = 1.6, 4.1). Men who reported a history of sexual abuse had a twofold increase in prevalence of HIV infection relative to unabused men (90% CI = 1.0, 3.9). CONCLUSIONS: The disturbing prevalence of early sexual abuse and its possible health-related consequences call for prompt and routine investigation of sexual abuse histories. Identification of sexual victimization may be an important component for management of risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus.
You would think that it might have been interesting to ask if there was some connection between childhood sexual abuse and adult sexual orientation.

Here's another study examining childhood sexual abuse and HIV status among homosexual and bisexual men. Samuel Jinich and Thomas J. Coates, Jay P. Paul, Ron Stall, Michael Acree, Susan Kegeles, Colleen Hoff, "Childhood Sexual Abuse and HIV Risk-Taking Behavior Among Gay and Bisexual Men," AIDS and Behavior, Volume 2, Number 1 / March, 1998. The abstract:
We explored the prevalence of childhood sexual abuse among adult gay and bisexual men and measured the association between childhood sexual abuse and high-risk sexual behavior in adulthood. Two separate population-based samples of gay and bisexual men (n = 1,941) residing in Portland and Tucson were surveyed. Over one quarter reported a history of childhood sexual abuse (sexual behavior with someone at least 5 years older prior to age 13, or with someone at least 10 years older when between ages 13 and 15). Men who were abused were more likely to engage in sexual risk behavior than men who were not abused (e.g., unprotected anal intercourse with non-primary partners in the previous 12 months: 21.4% vs. 15.0%, p < .001). Perception of having been coerced was associated with greater sexual risk. Furthermore, childhood sexual abuse and level of coercion were associated with reported levels of HIV infection among gay and bisexual men.
Hmmm. More than one-quarter of gay men reported that they had been sexually abused? That's almost three times the rates of sexual abuse among men in the general population. Isn't anyone noticing what might be an obvious connection here?

And there are lots of other articles out there, again ignoring the elephant in the bathtub--the high rates of childhood sexual abuse among adult gay men.

UPDATE: Just to clarify: these studies suggest that adult homosexuals were disproportionately victims of child sexual abuse--not the other way around.

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If South Africa Were Still A Whites-Only Government

I would assume that this tragic news story was propaganda put out to make black African governments look like incompetent fools. From the February 18, 2008 Lagos [Nigeria] Daily Champion:

Tragedy may even be inadequate to describe the killing of 17 innocent Nigerians during a routine military exercise by the army at the shooting range in Ibadan recently.

For the uninitiated, the shooting range exercises are simply training or practice exercises by the military to perfect their ability for precision target shooting.

This exercise is carried out routinely at designated training locations. It is an exercise targeted at achieving combat-readiness and takes place in locations where human beings are not residing. But the exercise in Ibadan resulted in the killing of 17 citizens in their homes in the Oyo State capital. "We saw bullet holes in our houses and on our roof tops", the villagers told reporters in Ibadan recently.

The development leaves a number of questions still unanswered. In the first place, why was the location so near to residential houses? Why did the army not take into consideration the killing range of the rifles used in the exercise? How was the army in Ibadan been doing it before now? And what led to the sudden change of location or strategy that brought about the killings that occurred?

If this is an "accident," what would constitute an intentional action of murder?

One of the arguments that gun control supporters often raise is that civilians just aren't highly enough trained to be trusted with guns. If this was an accident, it sounds like the Nigerian Army isn't highly enough trained, either.


 
Yes, There Was A Lunar Eclipse Tonight

and no, there won't be any pictures. We had high thin clouds here--it just ruined all the pictures I took.

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Breast Cancer & Dark Skies

I'm always a bit skeptical of correlations that fit with what I want, and I'm skeptical of this one as well--but there is at least a plausible causal connection here, and because I am an amateur astronomer, I'm not going to spend a long time looking this gift horse in the mouth. (Several years ago, the Idaho Statesman published a piece by me about the importance of dark skies.) From the February 20, 2008 Washington Post:

Women who live in neighborhoods with large amounts of nighttime illumination are more likely to get breast cancer than those who live in areas where nocturnal darkness prevails, according to an unusual study that overlaid satellite images of Earth onto cancer registries.

The finding adds credence to the hypothesis that exposure to too much light at night can raise the risk of breast cancer by interfering with the brain's production of a tumor-suppressing hormone.

"By no means are we saying that light at night is the only or the major risk factor for breast cancer," said Itai Kloog, of the University of Haifa in Israel, who led the new work. "But we found a clear and strong correlation that should be taken into consideration."

Scientists have known for years that rats raised in cages where lights are left on for much of the night have higher cancer rates than those allowed to sleep in darkness. And epidemiological studies of nurses, flight attendants and others who work at night have found breast cancer rates 60 percent above normal, even when other factors such as differences in diet are accounted for.

On the basis of such studies, an arm of the World Health Organization announced in December its decision to classify shift work as a "probable carcinogen." That put the night shift in the same health-risk category as exposure to such toxic chemicals as trichloroethylene, vinyl chloride and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs).

The mechanism of such a link, if real, remains mysterious, but many scientists suspect that melatonin is key. Secreted by the pineal gland in the brain, the hormone helps prevent tumor formation. The body produces melatonin primarily at night, and levels drop precipitously in the presence of light, especially light in the blue part of the spectrum produced in quantity by computer screens and fluorescent bulbs.

In keeping with the melatonin hypothesis, mice in cages with night lighting have normal cancer rates if they get shots of the hormone. And blind women, whose eyes cannot detect light and so have robust production of melatonin, have lower-than-average breast cancer rates.

Kloog and his colleagues took a previously untried approach to testing the link. They obtained satellite data from NASA that showed in great detail how much light was emitted spaceward from neighborhoods throughout Israel.

Although the light levels that reached the satellite were about one-tenth their intensity on Earth, the approach provides an accurate measure of which areas are brighter or darker than others and by how much.

The team then overlaid that map with local statistics on cases of breast cancer and, for comparison, lung cancer, which is caused mostly by smoking and so would not be expected to be linked to light.

After using neighborhood data to correct for other factors that can affect cancer rates, including wealth, ethnicity and the average number of children in families living in those localities, the researchers found no link between night lighting and lung cancer, they report in this week's online issue of the journal Chronobiology International.

But the researchers found the breast cancer rate in localities with average night lighting to be 37 percent higher than in communities with the lowest amount of light; and they noted that the rate was higher by an additional 27 percent in areas with the highest amount of light.

Abraham Haim, a University of Haifa chronobiologist involved in the study, said the findings raise questions about the recent push to switch to energy-efficient fluorescent bulbs, which suppress melatonin production more than conventional incandescent bulbs. "This may be a disaster in another 20 years," Haim said, "and you won't be able to reverse what we did by mistake." He called for more research before policies favoring fluorescent lights are implemented, and for more emphasis on using less light at night.

That matter of the compact fluorescents is especially interesting and worrisome.

Like I said, there are all sorts of other possible reasons for this correlation. Perhaps women that live in big cities, with lots of night illumination, and big city values, are more likely to smoke.

There have been some studies that suggest a link between abortion and cancer, although the National Cancer Institute says that the most recent and best done studies do not show the link. Here's a study from the New England Journal of Medicine which "370,715 induced abortions among 280,965 women" and "10,246 women with breast cancer" from Danish records, and found no correlation.

This 1994 study published by the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, on the other hand, did find a correlation:
Highest risks were observed when the abortion was done at ages younger than 18 years—particularly if it took place after 8 weeks' gestation—or at 30 years of age or older. No increased risk of breast cancer was associated with a spontaneous abortion (RR = 0.9; 95% CI = 0.7-1.2).
Similarly, this 1996 article from Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health reviewed existing studies, and concluded:
Although the increase in risk was relatively low, the high incidence of both breast cancer and induced abortion suggest a substantial impact of thousands of excess cases per year currently, and a potentially much greater impact in the next century, as the first cohort of women exposed to legal induced abortion continues to age.
This 2004 article in Cancer Causes and Control found no correlation, but I notice that it looked at both induced and spontaneous abortions--and that Journal of the National Cancer Institute study that found a correlation with induced abortions didn't find it with spontaneous abortions. It is conceivable that the correlation is weak enough that combining spontaneous abortions might wash out the results of induced abortions.

I don't find a link between abortion and breast cancer implausible (there's a lot of hormonal consequences to pregnancy, and an abortion would certainly affect hormonal activity), but considering the number of variables that are correlated with abortion, I can see how even if such a connection exists, it would be very difficult to definitively prove or disprove.

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Feeling Especially Stupid This Morning

I finished mounting the dovetail plate on Big Bertha 2.0 yesterday, and did a sufficiently slapdash job on it that I decided to replace that one square aluminum tube with one with a 1/8" wall. This way it will be stiffer, and I can do a more precise job drilling the holes because it won't be attached to the rest of the telescope when I drill them.

Then, I decided to go ahead and put Big Bertha 2.0 on the CI-700 mount, which is the only one that I have with the weight rating for a 50 pound telescope. This soon led to a minor disaster for the following reasons:

1. A German equatorial mount is a balancing act. The counterweight shaft for a 50 pound telescope has to have 50 pounds of weights on it, or at least close to it. That means that when the telescope isn't on the mount, it is intrinsically unstable.

2. I had not removed an extension from the tripod that put the equatorial mount head twelve inches higher than it needed to be. Partly I didn't do this because it would have required me to drill two holes in the tripod to mount some of the CI-700 mount's electronics on it, and I was in a bit of a hurry.

3. I neglected to lock down the casters under the tripod before trying to mount the telescope, and so it was a little too willing to roll.

The net result was that when my wife and I tried to put Big Bertha 2.0 into the dovetail slot on the mount, the mount (but not the telescope) fell over, landing on the counterweight shaft, and narrowly missing the 5" refractor that I had just taken off this mount.

The head of most equatorial mounts (including the CI-700) are positioned in between two verticals, held in position by a bolt that squeezes the verticals tightly against the head. It isn't a great picture, but you can sort of see this (especially if you know what you are supposed to be seeing from the description above):


Click to enlarge


In the case of the CI-700, there is also a latitude adjuster bolt that goes in between the bolt and the verticals, and makes it easy to adjust the mount for your latitude. The latitude adjuster bolt moves a cylinder back and forth that presses against two sets of "ears" on the under side of the head. Here you can see the latitude adjuster bolt, and the cylinder that moves back and forth against those ears.


Click to enlarge


The counterweight shaft had enough force against it to break most the ears (the lobes?) off the under side of the head, and bend the latitude adjuster bolt. Here are the broken pieces of aluminum that were the ears:


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The ears are an integral part of the head; replacing the head would cost many hundreds of dollars--if parts were available, which they aren't. It might be possible to have them welded back in position, although I am afraid of what that might cost. I'm quite sure that epoxy wouldn't have the strength for this bond.

The latitude adjuster bolt is a 3/8"-16 thread. I'm thinking of buying a bolt of the right length, turning down the end that isn't threaded, and then making a larger cylinder--large enough that it will work against the parts of the ears that weren't broken off. This means that the hole that I have to tap in it will be offset, instead of centered.

Any suggestions or hints for alternative strategies?


Tuesday, February 19, 2008
 
Obama's Gun Fanaticism

David Bernstein over at Volokh Conspiracy
has some useful information on where Obama was about gun control in 1999--and either he has made a 180 degree turn since then, or he was lying up a storm in Boise a few weeks ago. Heck, maybe McCain can beat the Democrat--if Obama is the Democrat.

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Monday, February 18, 2008
 
The Telescope Is Together

It is all assembled--and weighs fifty pounds--which is darn impressive for a 17.5" reflector. I still believe that it will be stiff enough that I won't need to add the other three rails--but if I need to do so, it would still only be fifty-five pounds.

The balance point is 14.5" from the mirror end of the scope. This means that the dovetail plate that will attach it to the mount will be centered at that point on the bottom rail. I have some concern that over time, the rail might bend under load. If I see any sign of this, I might swap that rail for one that is still 1" square, but with a .125" or even .25" wall. This would add 1.68 pounds for the .125" wall, or about 3.7 pounds for the .25" wall--quite acceptable increases in weight if it lets me keep the rest of it light.

Some of you have asked why I didn't go with a more conventional truss design. My primary reason is this: I wanted something that I could mount on a conventional equatorial mount, and I haven't seen any truss designs that would do that.

I wish that I had the energy to finish this tonight--we had a wonderfully clear (although cold) evening.

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McCain/Rice

Eric Scheie at Classical Values
is promoting the McCain/Rice ticket. Sounds good to me! Two people that seem to take the War on Terror seriously--and while McCain is a little squishy at times about gun rights, Rice isn't squishy.

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Debasing the Meaning of "Felony"

Eric Scheie at Classical Values has a picture of a no trespassing sign from Florida--where apparently trespassing on a construction site can be a felony. This is crazy. Felonies for most of our history have been really, really serious crimes: things like rape, murder, robbery, forgery. We keep distinctions between different categories of serious crimes because some crimes are really serious, and some are not so much.

I keep thinking of that Larry Niven short story where the need for transplantable organs leads to less and less serious crimes because capital--so that executed criminals could be "parted out" for transplantation. Eventually, they get it down to jaywalking. Niven was making a joke of the problem, right? Why is trespassing on a construction site a felony, then?


 
I'm Sure These Kids Thought It Was Funny

From February 13, 2008 KRQE in Albuquerque:
LOS LUNAS, N.M. (KRQE) - A pueblo police officer already mad at being served a burger spiked with marijuana is even more upset that the two men responsible got probation instead of jail sentences.

Henry Gabaldón and a fellow Isleta pueblo officer ate those burgers while on duty. Both got high and could have hurt themselves or someone else that night, he said.

Gabaldón called the crime a personal attack that had no consequences for the attackers.

"The message was it's OK to hurt an officer," Gabaldón said.

At first Gabaldón was very matter of fact about what happened on that October night in 2006.

He told KRQE News 13 how he and a fellow officer went to the Los Lunas Burger King and got Whoppers that had secretly been filled with pot.

"There was a lot of marijuana on the hamburgers," he said.

But it quickly became apparent how personal this is to Gabaldón.

"In the end we have to go home, too," he said. "We have families, and that is what it was, to all police officers, just a slap in the face."

The two men who laced the burgers, Justin Armijo and Robert Nuckols, both pleaded guilty to the crime.

Armijo was sentenced in November, and Nuckols was sentenced Monday. Both will serve no prison time only probation.
No jail time? I wonder if the problem here is that much of my generation are such heavy pot users that they just can't see this as the serious crime that it is. It would be a serious matter under any circumstances--but when you know that you are going to get someone intoxicated who is:

1. Driving a car.

2. Carrying a gun.

3. Has the full power and responsibility of law enforcement behind him.

This is a very serious matter.


 
Blue Skies!

It is still cold, and there's still a lot of snow on the ground, but we've have a week or more of generally blue skies! It does wonders for my attitude!


Click to enlarge


It's cold at night, but clear. Getting Big Bertha's weight loss program completed is at the top of my priority list.


 
The Telescope Is Coming Together (Part 2)

Here you can see that even though I didn't have the right length and finish of bolts, I had enough of a collection of 1/4"-20 fasteners to get everything together. I don't have the mirror cell in it, so I don't know for sure whether three rails will be enough, but at least right now, I can't detect any bending when I hold it by one rail.


Click to enlarge


And as I mentioned, it is going to need some repainting before final assembly. More by dumb luck than planning, there is no problem adding three more rails of the same size if needed to reduce deflection. This would only be another five pounds, and should reduce deflection by half.

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Sunday, February 17, 2008
 
The Constitution Was Not A Libertarian Document

Over at Volokh Conspiracy, everyone and their brother is going on about how wonderful it is that the Supreme Court may have to decide whether state laws prohibiting various sex toys are constitutional or not. Professor Somin is the latest to chime in with this attitude that of course such laws are unconstitutional:

The US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit recently struck down Texas' law banning the sale, lending, or giving away of sex toys. I think that the court was right to conclude that the sex toy ban is unconstitutional under the Supreme Court's decisions in Lawrence v. Texas (which invalidated laws banning both homosexual and heterosexual sodomy), and Griswold v. Connecticut (striking down bans on the sale of contraceptives).

There is an obvious distinction between Lawrence and the sex toys case in so far as anti-sodomy laws are often motivated by hostility to gays; anti-sex toy laws aren't backed by a comparable invidious hostility to a particular social group. However, as the Fifth Circuit opinion notes (pg. 8), the Lawrence decision was deliberately written to avoid basing its reasoning on the anti-homosexual motives behind anti-sodomy laws. Instead, "the [Lawrence] Court explicitly rested its holding on substantive due process, not equal protection. ... [T]he Court concluded that the sodomy law violated the substantive due process right to engage in consensual intimate conduct in the home free from government intrusion."

I think this is a stupid law. Unfortunately, it is rather difficult to persuade some people that there's a difference between "stupid law" and "unconstitutional." The U.S. Constitution was not, and is not, a libertarian document. At best, it limited federal power in most areas (which the Court has generally ignored since the 1930s), limited state power in a few areas (see Art. I, secs.9 and 10), and pre-empted state power in a few others by granting these powers to the federal government (see Art. I, sec. 8). But it otherwise left nearly all power to the states. State constitutions could, and often did, protect individual rights from state tyranny, but the U.S. Constitution wasn't limiting their power.

Significantly, states engaged in all sorts of regulation of sexual morality for many decades after ratification of the Bill of Rights: laws banning adultery, sodomy, premarital sex, prostitution, and obscenity. And oddly enough, I can't seem to find any examples of courts striking down those laws for violating this libertarian Constitution until very recently. This is rather like the academics who are convinced that the Second Amendment couldn't possibly protect an individual right, and then spend time trying to twist the historical evidence to suit the public policy conclusion that they want.

Starting with the 14th Amendment, bits and pieces of the first eight amendments have been slowly applied to the states. Proponents of the 14th Amendment, such as Rep. John Bingham, were very clear that the privileges and immunities clause would impose the first eight amendments to the states. The Court, for a variety of stupid reasons, chose to ignore the privileges and immunities clause, and engaged in what is called "selective incorporation," slowly applying some (but not all) of those protections to the states through either the due process or equal protection clauses of the 14th Amendment. While they might be achieving the original intent, piecemeal, it was certainly not what was expected.

Sometimes, however, rights have been plucked out of the behinds of some federal judges that can't be found in either the text, or the historical record of original intent. In the case of Griswold, Justice Douglas's opinion concluded that there was some right of privacy:
The Fourth and Fifth Amendments were described in Boyd v. United States, 116 U.S. 616, 630 , as protection against all governmental invasions "of the sanctity of a man's home and the privacies of life."
Yet somehow, in spite of almost a century and a half of meddling in "the privacies of life" with all sorts of laws regulating sexual morality and contraceptives, no one seems to have noticed the conflict before. As stupid as this law was, Douglas was just reaching into thin air to find a basis for striking down a law he didn't like.

Even worse was Justice Goldberg's concurring opinion that found that the Ninth Amendment in some way limited state authority to pass stupid laws. Yet Madison (who was actually a proponent of a Bill of Rights that limited state power) was very clear that the Ninth Amendment limited only the federal government--not the states. See Annals of Congress, 1:456, where he very clearly recognized that there was legitimate concern that creating an enumerated list of rights might be interpreted as meaning that any rights that were
not singled out, were intended to be assigned into the hands of the General Government, and were consequently insecure. This is one of the most plausible arguments I have heard urged against the admission of a bill of rights into this system; but, I conceive, that it may be guarded against. I have attempt it, as gentlemen may see by turning to the last clause of the fourth resolution.
You can read the "last clause of the fourth resolution"--the ancestor of the Ninth Amendment, at Annals of Congress, 1:452.

As previously mentioned, proponents of the 14th Amendment, such as Rep. John Bingham, were very clear that the 14th Amendment's privileges and immunities clause only imposed the first eight amendments on the states. Why only eight? Because the Ninth Amendment, as Madison observed, was to protect against federal denial of individual rights:
The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.

The Tenth Amendment was not limited to protecting individual rights; it included provisions that protected some elements of state power from an overreaching federal government:
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
No matter. It doesn't matter what the Constitution says, or what everyone understood it to mean in 1789, or in 1868. This attempt to reimagine the Constitution as being a libertarian manifesto is historically inaccurate.

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Obama & Fainting

Instapundit mentions that people are fainting at Obama rallies. Wow! What a powerful influence he must have!

When was the last time that a politician was so charismatic? Many years ago, I recall seeing an interview with William L. Shirer, author of The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. Shirer was an American journalist in Germany at the time of Hitler's rise to power. Shirer discussed the memerizing influence Hitler had on those present at his speeches--and how women would faint in his presence. There are a number of accounts that I can find that mention this powerful effect that Hitler had on women (using the rather quaint word "swoon"): like this one, and this one (quoting from one of Shirer's other books).

I'm not saying that Obama is Hitler. I'm saying that the level of emotion about Obama means that rationality has gone completely out the door--and that's a very dangerous situation.

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