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Clayton Cramer's BLOG

Clayton's commentary on news and events of the day. Broadly speaking, I'm a conservative with libertarian sympathies (getting more conservative as my children get older).



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Saturday, July 19, 2008
 
Some Cool Photography By My Nephew Daniel

My nephew Daniel Goldwasser is a photographer based in Los Angeles, and he has some examples of some of the TV commercials on which he has worked, as well as some very beautiful time lapse photography work. I especially like this Cadillac commercial showing the development of the Cadillac since 1902.


 
Moon Over Bogus Basin; Jupiter

Unfortunately, I was so ga-ga over how beautiful the framing was, I didn't notice that I wasn't very sharply focused--on either Moon or trees (although they should be effectively identical focus). This is a prime focus at ASA 100 with the 17.5" f/4.5 reflector, 1/90th of a second.


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I also tried to do eyepiece projection on Jupiter--still having a heck of a time getting a decent focus. You can tell that the cloud bands are there. Being still low in the sky, and with the Moon washing everything out, the cloud bands weren't dramatically more crisp in the eyepiece. This was 1/20th of a second, ASA 400, with an 18mm orthoscopic eyepiece projection.


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I have also decided that whatever the limitations of Big Bertha's mirror, it is not clear that it has a turned edge. I am beginning to think that the problem was the lack of support of Big Bertha 1.0. I took the mirror mask off last night, and I couldn't see that there was any decline in image quality. I also tried to do the star test on Antares. While I couldn't get the diffraction rings (Antares was low in the sky, and there was a bit of turbulence), I didn't see any of the outside focus symptoms of turned down edge. It may not be a great mirror, but I can feel comfortable using the full aperture of the mirror now.

The big problem is that I need to get the telescope back down to Earth! I have the mount sitting on a 10.5" plus 12" column right now to get it high enough off the ground board to avoid collisions. What I need to do is is take out the 10.5" column, and build appropriate hardware to bolt the 12" column to the ground board. I still need a better stepladder than I am using, but even taking 10.5" out of the elevation would make a world of difference.

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Friday, July 18, 2008
 
Limbaugh Listeners vs. National Public Radio Listeners

In some circles, Rush Limbaugh's listeners (Dittoheads, as they call themselves) are assumed to be knuckle-dragging Neanderthals. I confess, over the years, those people I knew who were regular Limbaugh listeners didn't impress me, largely because they weren't readers. So imagine my surprise at finding this July 6, 2008 New York Times article about Limbaugh with this amazing piece of information:
Limbaugh’s audience is often underestimated by critics who don’t listen to the show (only 3 percent of his audience identify themselves as “liberal,” according to the nonpartisan Pew Research Center for the People and the Press). Recently, Pew reported that, on a series of “news knowledge questions,” Limbaugh’s “Dittoheads” — the defiantly self-mocking term for his faithful, supposedly brainwashed, audience — scored higher than NPR listeners. The study found that “readers of newsmagazines, political magazines and business magazines, listeners of Rush Limbaugh and NPR and viewers of the Daily Show and C-SPAN are also much more likely than the average person to have a college degree.” [emphasis added]
I suspect that if you let most NPR readers in on this secret, it would cause an epidemic of strokes.


 
Consensus Meltdown

The Physics & Society forum of the American Physical Society (that is to say, the professional association of physicists--about 50,000 members) has backed away from their support for anthropogenic global warming:
With this issue of Physics & Society, we kick off a debate concerning one of the main conclusions of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body which, together with Al Gore, recently won the Nobel Prize for its work concerning climate change research. There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution. Since the correctness or fallacy of that conclusion has immense implications for public policy and for the future of the biosphere, we thought it appropriate to present a debate within the pages of P&S concerning that conclusion.
Oh dear. I guess that this isn't settled science. The discussion over at July 16, 2008 Daily Tech includes this:

The APS is opening its debate with the publication of a paper by Lord Monckton of Brenchley, which concludes that climate sensitivity -- the rate of temperature change a given amount of greenhouse gas will cause -- has been grossly overstated by IPCC modeling. A low sensitivity implies additional atmospheric CO2 will have little effect on global climate.

Larry Gould, Professor of Physics at the University of Hartford and Chairman of the New England Section of the APS, called Monckton's paper an "expose of the IPCC that details numerous exaggerations and "extensive errors"

In an email to DailyTech, Monckton says, "I was dismayed to discover that the IPCC's 2001 and 2007 reports did not devote chapters to the central 'climate sensitivity' question, and did not explain in proper, systematic detail the methods by which they evaluated it. When I began to investigate, it seemed that the IPCC was deliberately concealing and obscuring its method."

According to Monckton, there is substantial support for his results, "in the peer-reviewed literature, most articles on climate sensitivity conclude, as I have done, that climate sensitivity must be harmlessly low."

Monckton, who was the science advisor to Britain's Thatcher administration, says natural variability is the cause of most of the Earth's recent warming. "In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years ... Mars, Jupiter, Neptune’s largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth."

When all the major politicians (Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, McCain, Gingrich) take a position on the same side of an issue--you can be pretty sure that they have it wrong.

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Interesting Parallels

This comes out of a Pennsylvania trial of those who had resisted enforcement of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850. I found this in the December 18, 1851 National Era, one of the black nationa newspapers of the time:
He said the gentleman had mistaken the temper and misunderstood the character and position of our people, when he indulged in his long and severe lecture upon them. He said we were not situated like citizens of the South. We felt secure in our homes, and could turn out in defence of our country, to resist an enemy, or suppress an insurrection, leaving the protection of our homes and firesides to the women, without apprehending any danger from a domestic and a servile adversary. We were not compelled to forbid the reading of the Bible by any of our people, or to forbid their instruction in letters. We had no laws to authorize one man to beat another immoderately, or to whip women. We had no laws to forbid the wearing swords as dangerous weapons, or to prohibit the sale of powder and ball to any man, of any color, or of any extraction. We permitted every one to have arms, to bear arms, and to use arms, with the proper limits of legal propriety; we had public schools for the general instruction of the people, where the child of the poor man stands on an equal footing with the child of the rich; every man's home is held sacred, and is secure, and the rights and duties of the domestic relations are guarded and enforced by the law, and maintained with all the moral sanctions of a correct public opinion.
The Democrats haven't quite reached the point of forbidding the reading of the Bible (yet), but their contempt for teaching anything based on that book is pretty clear. And they certainly have their position about guns pretty well staked out--and in the same position that they took back then.

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Thursday, July 17, 2008
 
Far More Material Than I Would Have Guessed

Those of you who live in California, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, and a few other places where there is no right to keep and bear arms--good news. I'm doing research in support of the lawsuits against Chicago and San Francisco to get the Second Amendment applied to state and local governments through the Fourteenth Amendment's "privileges and immunities" clause. Right now, I'm digging through newspapers and books of the 1830-1870 period--and the volume of stuff that explicitly recognizes that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to keep and bear arms is just staggering.

What's even more entertaining is the astonishing diversity of those saying this. Democrats (although they aren't quite prepared to include black people, for obvious reasons--just like today!) Republican National Platforms. Abolitionists are saying it. Apologists for the slave holders are saying it. Black newspapers are saying it. White newspapers are saying it.

I remember telling someone that proving that the Second Amendment protects an individual right was a little struggle, but we did manage to find the evidence. It was scarce, but present. (And their side couldn't find anything but hopes and dreams.)

Proving that the Second Amendment was understood to protect an individual right in the period when the states ratified the Fourteenth Amendment is, by comparison, child's play. The volume of evidence is vastly larger, and considerably more explicit.

The Brady Campaign should start figuring out what stupid idea to promote next--because they are in a world of trouble with what I am finding.

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Strange Coincidence

I received a copy of the Treatment Advocacy Center's newsletter from my mother yesterday, mentioning that this bill had passed the Idaho legislature with not a single NO vote. And then I see this July 17, 2008 Idaho Statesman article about it:

But alcohol was just part of the problem; the 25-year-old also was contending with an untreated bipolar disorder.

His dual diagnosis - mental illness plus addiction - once would have been a likely ticket to a life in and out of Idaho prisons. But today it makes him like most of the participants in Ada County's mental health court, a rigorous rehab program created to find a better way to treat mentally ill offenders.

Now clean and sober, Moore keeps himself going with Alcoholics Anonymous and cigarettes. He's traded his daily bottle of rum for Mountain Dew, carrying it in a big thermos to his job at Honk's bargain store.

"My boss tells me I'd bleed green if I ever got cut," he said.

At the end of July, after 20 months in mental health court, Moore and two others will "graduate" from the program.

A BETTER, AND CHEAPER, WAY TO TREAT SOME

The country's first mental health courts were created about a decade ago, on the principle that prison is neither effective punishment nor a deterrent for the mentally ill.

Judge Michael McLaughlin set up Ada County's version on orders of the state Supreme Court in 2005.

Left behind bars without treatment, people with mental health disorders will leave prison in worse shape than when they went in, McLaughlin said.

And that can have a huge impact on communities - 97 percent of all offenders eventually get out of prison and live among the general population.

McLaughlin sees mental health court as "an ounce of prevention for a pound of cure."

That prevention is a lot cheaper, costing between $2,500 and $3,500 per person a year, while it costs $20,000 to keep an inmate in prison, McLaughlin said.

Idaho's program is still young. Kelly Norris, program coordinator, said finding the perfect candidate for the program - someone whose mental illness is the reason for their criminal activities or addiction - is an ongoing process that becomes more refined all the time.

National studies show mentally ill people placed on regular probation have a 90 percent chance of returning to prison. When they enter a mental health treatment program, the rate falls to 35 percent.

I've mentioned before studies of IOC programs in Victoria, Australia, and the IOC programs of other states. One aspect of Idaho's Mental Health Court that makes it different from these other IOC programs is that it is specifically for those who have come to the attention of the criminal justice system for relatively minor crimes. The IOC programs of other states include those who are mentally ill and have significant problems, but aren't necessarily those who are going to prison. This is certainly an area where Idaho needs a more typical IOC program.

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Oil Prices Starting To Dip: "Demand Destruction"

I saw this in the Idaho Statesman today, but this version appears in the July 17, 2008 La Crosse, Wisconsin Tribune, and echoes a prediction that I linked to a few weeks back by economist Alan Reynolds:
Oil prices fell sharply Wednesday for the second consecutive day, and the cumulative drop of $10.58 a barrel for crude has sparked hopes that this year’s steep rise in prices finally may be reversing.

Contracts for next-month deliveries of oil, called futures contracts, settled down $4.14 to $134.60 in Wednesday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was on the heels of a drop of more than $6 a day earlier.

It’s too early to say whether the sudden drop reflects the start of a massive selloff that could bring down oil prices on a sustained basis to less-punishing levels. But oil analysts think that the trend will be down soon, whether or not this week marks the turning point.

“Two days does not a trend make. But obviously the chances to put in a top (ceiling) are very good right now, because it is obvious to everyone who is looking that we are seeing clear signs of demand destruction for oil,” said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst with Alaron Trading, a commodities brokerage in Chicago. “I think there is a certain realization that we may have hit the point of pain where demand is going to go away.”

Economic theory holds that prices can rise only so high before customers are no longer willing or able to pay for a product, a phenomenon called demand destruction. In the United States, the world’s largest energy consumer, the high gasoline prices — a result of high oil prices — have led to a 2 percent drop in gasoline consumption this summer and a 2.6 percent drop in oil demand this year.

The coming weeks should signal whether oil prices remain volatile, swinging $10 or more up or down in a period of days, or whether they’re on the way down sharply. Flynn and others suggest that traders are watching for psychological break points: $135 a barrel and higher for an oil rally to resume or less than $130 for sharper downward corrections ahead.

“I think we are closer to a turning point. I don’t know if this is the turning point,” said Antoine Halff, the director of commodities research for Newedge USA, a futures market brokerage.

But the clear expectation is that the U.S. and global economies will slow significantly, and that means demand for oil will fall off.
Today the good news continued, as this July 17, 2008 Bloomberg report tell us:

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a third day, the longest losing streak for a month, on speculation slower global economic growth is curbing fuel consumption.

Crude has plunged more than $13 from last week's record $147.27 on falling U.S. gasoline purchases. Economic growth in China, the world's second-largest oil user, was the slowest since 2005 in the second quarter. Plans for renewed diplomatic contacts between the U.S. and Iran eased concern a conflict will cut supplies from the Middle East's second-largest producer.

This is really no surprise. Prices for commodities a function of both demand and supply--and like PV=nRT (the gas law equation), you push down on any part of the equation, and some other variable goes up. Prices go up enough, and for commodities that are not truly essential, demand will drop. Demand falls--and prices fall. Prices rise--and the supply of the commodity (or some adequate substitute) rise, as greedy people look for ways to get rich.

One of the reasons that the left insists on seeing rising prices in terms of evil corporations (and never in terms of greedy governments, like those that make up OPEC) is that they simply refuse to understand economics. In a free market, every individual makes decisions. Those decisions may be foolish, or they may be smart. They may even be thoughtless. But the summation of all those individual decisions is surprisingly intelligent--as long as wages and prices are allowed to rise and fall without governmental intervention.

American demand for petroleum has fallen quite dramatically of late--as this June 30, 2008 Reuters news story reports:

NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - Weak U.S. demand for gasoline have kept supplies higher than seasonally normal, putting downward pressure on gasoline differentials in oil markets east of the Rockies, traders said on Monday.

According to revised U.S. government statistics, U.S. oil demand in April fell by 4.2 percent -- the lowest level in six years -- with gasoline demand falling over one percent, traders said.

And not because Americans are concerned about Mother Earth, or worried about global warming, but for one simple reason: high prices told them that a commodity was in short supply, and in the one way that I guarantee will get everyone, selfish or selfless, to respond.

I'm not expecting gasoline to go back to $1.11 per gallon, what I was paying when I first arrived in Boise in late 2001. I think anyone who runs out and buys a gashog based on the expectation of $2 per gallon gas is (even if it gets there) better have a very good reason for this. (And there are a few people that may need monstrous vehicles for specialized purposes.) Because you can be sure that if we do get back down to $2.50 per gallon gas, it won't stay there for long. On the other hand, if you find someone selling their brand new 4x4 for half the new price--you might save enough on the purchase to pay for the gasoline to feed it! But few people are quite that irrational.

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Britain Takes Baby Steps Towards Civilization

They have decided to reform the laws to make it a little clearer that self-defense isn't always a bad thing. From the July 15, 2008 Guardian:

New laws coming into force today will give greater protection to "have-a-go heroes" who challenge burglars or other criminals.

It will mean that members of the public who tackle criminals are unlikely to be prosecuted if they can show they acted instinctively or because they feared for their safety.

Jack Straw, the justice secretary, who has himself intervened four times to stop criminals, said the government wanted to favour the victim rather than encourage vigilantism.

"This law will help to make sure that the criminal justice system is firmly weighted in favour of the victim," he said.

He added: "These changes in the law will make clear - victims of crime, and those who intervene to prevent crime, should be treated with respect by the justice system. We do not want to encourage vigilantism, but there can be no justice in a system which makes the victim the criminal."

The government had previously rejected attempts by Conservative backbenchers Patrick Mercer and Anne McIntosh to introduce a change in the law because their bills were "never worded quite right".

In 2004, the Metropolitan police commissioner, Sir John Stevens, had also said that he supported the use of "necessary force" by members of the public. Straw announced a change in policy at last year's Labour conference.

In practice, householders are seldom prosecuted if they harm or even kill an intruder but the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act 2008 will give them greater legal protection.
It says a lot about how far down the road Britain has gone that self-defense is seen as heroic, doesn't it?


Wednesday, July 16, 2008
 
Josh Xiong On Defining Rational

Josh Xiong at Neocon Blues is a new addition to the blogosphere. See this article about defining rational and Iran:
Obama’s talk of sitting down with American enemies such as Iran is old news. Democrats wax poetic about the need for a new course of post-Bush diplomacy, while Republicans warn of mistakenly legitimizing a norms-flouting rogue state. While the latter is probably the more accurate judgement, the debate as a whole misses a salient point: Iran’s reasoning for a nuclear bomb.

On this subject, there are only two conceivable answers (different, but not unrelated): Iran wants leverage, or Iran wants power.

The former entails a particularly benign perspective of Iran as “rational.” This is rationality that conforms to western expectations of what constitute a country’s interests - global legitimacy recognition, technology, foreign direct investment, etc. And so, realists who are unrealistically pining for a diplomatic deal at all costs and liberals who submit to their Bush-era cynicism both argue that Iran is pursuing the bomb in hopes of attaining a “grand bargain.” If only we could make them “an offer they couldn’t refuse,” they say, we’d be able to defuse the nuclear situation. But absent reneging on our desire for Iranian regime change, the U.S. and the EU3 have offered, multiple times, practically everything a “rational” government could want: membership in the WTO, lifting of economic sanctions, recognition in various other international bodies, and most importantly, a Russian supply of safe, peaceful nuclear energy. On the last point, we’ve been reminded plenty of times that perhaps Iran is simply not interested in nuclear energy. After all, why would a rational actor turn down free energy to pursue its own, with the financial and diplomatic costs associated with it? And with that in mind, perhaps Iran is not so interested in international recognition either, if pursuing the bomb means continued isolation and accepting the EU3’s offer means entrance into the boys club.

Josh is apparently a University of Toronto undergrad.

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The Washington Post On Obama & Iraq

Liberal paper that they are, the Washington Post editorial board at least recognizes that Iraq isn't a partisan game, but a deadly serious matter. This July 16, 2008 editorial is quite clear that Obama is in way over his head, and driven by ideology, not facts:
Early last year, when the war was at its peak, the Democratic candidate proposed a timetable for withdrawing all U.S. combat forces in slightly more than a year. Yesterday, with bloodshed at its lowest level since the war began, Mr. Obama endorsed the same plan. After hinting earlier this month that he might "refine" his Iraq strategy after visiting the country and listening to commanders, Mr. Obama appears to have decided that sticking to his arbitrary, 16-month timetable is more important than adjusting to the dramatic changes in Iraq.

Mr. Obama's charge against the Republicans was not entirely fair, since Mr. Bush has overseen the withdrawal of five American brigades from Iraq this year, and Mr. McCain has suggested that he would bring most of the rest of the troops home by early 2013. Mr. Obama's timeline would end in the summer of 2010, a year or two before the earliest dates proposed recently by members of the Iraqi government. The real difference between the various plans is not the dates but the conditions: Both the Iraqis and Mr. McCain say the withdrawal would be linked to the ability of Iraqi forces to take over from U.S. troops, as they have begun to do. Mr. Obama's strategy allows no such linkage -- his logic is that a timetable unilaterally dictated from Washington is necessary to force Iraqis to take responsibility for the country.

At the time he first proposed his timetable, Mr. Obama argued -- wrongly, as it turned out -- that U.S. troops could not stop a sectarian civil war. He conceded that a withdrawal might be accompanied by a "spike" in violence. Now, he describes as "an achievable goal" that "we leave Iraq to a government that is taking responsibility for its future -- a government that prevents sectarian conflict and ensures that the al-Qaeda threat which has been beaten back by our troops does not reemerge." How will that "true success" be achieved? By the same pullout that Mr. Obama proposed when chaos in Iraq appeared to him inevitable.

Mr. Obama reiterated yesterday that he would consult with U.S. commanders and the Iraqi government and "make tactical adjustments as we implement this strategy." However, as Mr. McCain quickly pointed out, he delivered his speech before traveling to Iraq -- before his meetings with Gen. David H. Petraeus and the Iraqi leadership. American commanders will probably tell Mr. Obama that from a logistical standpoint, a 16-month withdrawal timetable will be difficult, if not impossible, to fulfill. Iraqis will say that a pullout that is not negotiated with the government and disregards the readiness of Iraqi troops will be a gift to al-Qaeda and other enemies. If Mr. Obama really intends to listen to such advisers, why would he lock in his position in advance?

In retrospect, the Iraq war may have been a mistake, and certainly Bush made some very serious mistakes in how the occupation was handled. But with the amount of money, lives, and suffering we have suffered for this war, to prematurely withdraw now and risk putting al-Qaeda and the crowd that tortures people to death with power tools in charge would achieve maximum costs with maximum bad results. I'm no fan of McCain, but at least he seems to understand that foreign policy is not a game that you play to make the radical left wing of the Democratic Party feel good about themselves.

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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
 
An Amusing Story of a British Policeman

Or rather, he was a British policeman. He got so tired of the bureaucracy making it impossible to do anything about crime--he moved to Canada, and is now a Canadian policeman. His blog includes a lot of stuff from current British police about dealing with a system that combines the worst of multicultural insanity with bureaucracy gone made.


 
"Release inner vigilante"

That's from a headline in the Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail in this July 15, 2008 article. Read the whole article and see that the reporter is having some fun and distorting what the Vancouver police are saying:

Vancouverites urged to release inner vigilante


VANCOUVER -- An eye-gouging fistfight between a good Samaritan and a purse snatcher has prompted Vancouver police to offer qualified support for vigilante action, suggesting citizens should feel free to indulge their inner Batman if they have the martial and physical skills to prevail against bad guys.

The call to action during the police department's daily news briefing yesterday was one that veteran criminologist Neil Boyd found "a little unusual." Police routinely suggest the public back off in such cases in case criminals are armed, he said.

"Traditionally, the police have tended to be reticent or discourage intervention because of the risks involved," said Prof. Boyd, who teaches at Simon Fraser University.

"On the other hand, there's a case to be made for community responsibility," he said. "There's a limitation to how much police can do. They can't be everywhere at once."

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The Part of Idaho Where No One Lives

My wife and I drove up to McCall for a late lunch on Sunday--and I am pleased to see that the Trailblazer, as bad as it is around town, just sips gas at freeway speeds with the cruise control set.

Idaho state highway 55 north from of us is a part of Idaho where almost no one lives--and on a day like this, you would be asking yourself, "Why?" There's a reason that this area is so beautiful and unspoiled...and for the same reason that much of Alaska is in that same pristine condition. I've driven through this part of Idaho in winter (defined at this altitude as "November through April and sometimes May").

Anyway, here's some pictures of the state park on Lake Cascade, about 15 miles south of McCall.


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Yes, that's snow on the peaks behind the lake.


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Trust me, that's gold in the water! (Or more likely, pyrites that I wasn't prepared to fish out to do hardness and brittleness tests.)


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Water sports paradise. This is why, in spite of the price of gasoline, there's never a shortage of vehicles towing boats north along Idaho 55.


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Yes, plenty of massive beef cattle were grazing along the lake. Skittery creatures.


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Hey, we may not be a very racially diverse state with respect to people but when it comes to cattle....


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Gorgeous wild flowers, everywhere in that part of Idaho.


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Yes, those are pelicans. I wasn't expecting them this far from the ocean.


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My wife thought these were perhaps immature ospreys. They are amazing critters in flight.


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Okay, I'm used to seeing seagulls way inland.

We ate a late lunch at The Great Escape in McCall--where all the tables (inside and out) have a lake view. On days like this, I can see why so many people in Boise have boats--and are prepared to drive north!

Each time we stop in McCall to do the tourist thing, it seems like nearly every restaurants and shops that was there the last time has been replaced with a new place. The Great Escape had good food at a decent price (considering it is a tourist area and they have this great lake view).

A lovely afternoon!

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Taking More Weight Off Big Bertha

I mentioned a couple of days ago that the CI-700 mount just wasn't quite beefy enough to handle Big Bertha's weight. At the same time, the next step up--a Losmandy Titan or Mountain Instruments 250--would be $6000 to $7000--an enormous amount of money for what is, after all, a hobby.

I occurred to me that my original goal in slimming down Big Bertha was because the more weight you shave off the telescope, the less expensive of a mount you need. I would guess that every dollar you spend lightening the telescope saves you four or five dollars on a beefier mount. And maybe it is time to start looking at the use of carbon fiber composite components to take some more weight off Big Bertha. Even a ten pound reduction would probably get Big Bertha light enough for the CI-700 to handle well. It is certainly worth investigating.

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Fireworks & Oversimplified History

I took the pictures below at Eagle Island State Park, where there was a very nice fireworks display on the 4th.


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Beautiful fireworks--and there was a soundtrack being broadcast as well. While country & western isn't really my preferred musical style, some of the patriotic numbers were still pretty stirring. There was one, however, that was the kind of angry, jingoistic stuff that I don't reflects well on America. I can't remember the title, but I've heard it before, and found it irritating before.

There was also one rather long monologue about the history of "The Star-Spangled Banner" that was very moving, very touching--and in places, oversimplified the history, and in other places, just had it wrong. Someone put a bit of effort into putting this together--and was confusing the War of 1812 (during which Francis Scott Key, an abolitionist and lawyer, wrote the lyrics) and the American Revolution. There was a quote from George Washington that I am quite sure wasn't right.

Being an historian, I tend to be pretty demanding that history be done right. In historical fiction, I can overlook a certain amount of dialog invention, telescoping of facts, combination of characters to simplify the story, but when you are making a statement of historical fact, as this monologue was doing, you really do need to get it right.

There's a lot in America's history to be proud of, and some that is shameful. I don't think there's a need to dwell on the shameful aspects on the 4th of July--but getting the basic facts right really does matter. But perhaps that would require more willingness to learn than most people are willing to exert.

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Genetics & Violence

This is a really fascinating article from July 14, 2008 Reuters:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Three genes may play a strong role in determining why some young men raised in rough neighborhoods or deprived families become violent criminals, while others do not, U.S. researchers reported on Monday.

One gene called MAOA that played an especially strong role has been shown in other studies to affect antisocial behavior -- and it was disturbingly common, the team at the University of North Carolina reported.

People with a particular variation of the MAOA gene called 2R were very prone to criminal and delinquent behavior, said sociology professor Guang Guo, who led the study.

"I don't want to say it is a crime gene, but 1 percent of people have it and scored very high in violence and delinquency," Guo said in a telephone interview.

His team, which studied only boys, used data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, a U.S. nationally representative sample of about 20,000 adolescents in grades 7 to 12. The young men in the study are interviewed in person regularly, and some give blood samples.

Guo's team constructed a "serious delinquency scale" based on some of the questions the youngsters answered.

"Nonviolent delinquency includes stealing amounts larger or smaller than $50, breaking and entering, and selling drugs," they wrote in the August issue of the American Sociological Review.

"Violent delinquency includes serious physical fighting that resulted in injuries needing medical treatment, use of weapons to get something from someone, involvement in physical fighting between groups, shooting or stabbing someone, deliberately damaging property, and pulling a knife or gun on someone."

An encouraging aspect of the study, however, is this apparently protective behavior:

The effect of repeating a grade depended on whether a boy had a certain mutation in MAOA called a 2 repeat, they found.

And a certain mutation in DRD2 seemed to set off a young man if he did not have regular meals with his family.

"But if people with the same gene have a parent who has regular meals with them, then the risk is gone," Guo said.

"Having a family meal is probably a proxy for parental involvement," he added. "It suggests that parenting is very important."

He said vulnerable children might benefit from having surrogates of some sort if their parents are unavailable.

Parenting is really important--more so for some boys than others, apparently.


Monday, July 14, 2008
 
Pulling Teeth in D.C.

Well, I wasn't expecting D.C. government to obey the Constitution anymore than actually required. The July 14, 2008 Washington Post reports on the new handgun regulations:

Gun owners will have to pass vision and written tests, provide a photo with their application to register a gun, and submit their weapon for ballistics testing. Guns will also still require trigger locks.

Mayor Adrian M. Fenty (D) and interim Attorney General Peter J. Nickles announced the regulations alongside D.C. Council Chairman Vincent G. Gray (D), Phil Mendelson (D-At Large) and several other council members.

The regulations are an effort to maintain some gun control while complying with the Supreme Court's 5 to 4 ruling last month.

"We think we have struck the delicate legal balance," Fenty said. "While we will have lawsuits, we think we stand on solid legal ground."

In a news release announcing the restrictions, Fenty said: "We continue to take every step we can to minimize handgun violence in the District. We must prevent handguns from falling into the wrong hands or being misused."

...

The District's police department is prepared to begin the registration process for people as soon as the emergency legislation is passed.

Officials also said for the first 90 days, individuals will be limited to one gun a person.

Those who already own a gun will have a six-month amnesty period to register their weapon but will have to follow the same process as a new gun owner, city officials said.

Am I happy with these regulations? No, not particularly. Are they better than what we had before? Absolutely. I can see the point of the vision regulation, and depending on the nature of the written test, I suppose that it can be defended. But can you imagine what the ACLU's reaction would be if D.C. required a grammar test and an exam about libel law as a condition of owning a photocopier?

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Need A Suggestion For a Part

I have a screw that will be lifting a plate through about a 40 degree turn--but because of the angle that it will be at, the plate has to be captive. I can't just put a screw under the plate--I have to make sure that the upper plate won't go flying freely, and when I turn the screw back that it pulls the plate back down.



I had thought of using a ball joint or a clevis joint to allow the pivot. Ball joints in this size (like, 1/4" threads) don't have enough angle of motion. Clevis joints do, but clevis joints I can find are usually threaded, so turning the screw to move the plate up and down will be turning the joint round and round. Any suggestions? Is there a part intended for this? Perhaps something that might be used in model aircraft that allows a screw motion to move a part up and down?

UPDATE: One reader suggested a universal joint. A universal joint transfers rotation. In this case, I don't really want to do that. (Or need to--and since this might go into mass production, I'm looking for a cheap and simple way to do this.) Ideally, I want something that lets the screw coming up from the bottom move the upper plate up and down, while the joint allows the angle to change. This won't be moving quickly and very far.

UPDATE 2: Thank you for all the useful suggestions. I think I have enough now to figure out a solution!

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Sunday, July 13, 2008
 
Every Silver Lining Has a Cloud

I guess that the things are going swimmingly well in Iraq--the July 13, 2008 Idaho Statesman carried this Associated Press story today admitting it--but of course, immediately finding the cloud to go with the silver lining:

BAGHDAD — Wajih Hameed is an Iraqi general with an attitude. With a satisfied look, he listened as a subordinate officer explained to the deputy commander of U.S. forces in Baghdad how he plans to reposition his troops in the coming weeks.

"Before, they would have asked us to propose a plan" in such a circumstance and then would have accepted it with little argument, said Brig. Gen. Will Grimsley, who led a group of American officers to Hameed's office on Thursday. "Now they are telling us how they will do it," he said in an interview afterward.

Hameed's swagger sometimes grates on American officers. But Maj. Gen. Jeffery Hammond sees it as a hopeful sign the Iraqi army - generals and soldiers alike - has reached a new level of self-confidence, pointing the way toward truly independent Iraqi forces and, eventually, an exit for U.S. combat troops.

The flip side is that the Americans feel their control slipping away. This feeds a worry that Iraqi security forces either will set themselves up for a catastrophic failure or might even decide - at some point when the Americans largely have departed - that the country would be better off under military rule.

For now, the new assertiveness by generals such as Hameed, who commands all Iraqi soldiers in the western part of the capital, is welcomed.

"They have a self-confidence now that they didn't have when (I) first arrived" last fall, Hammond, the top commander of U.S. forces in Baghdad, said in an interview. The Iraqi army, he said, was largely limited as recently as last winter to manning checkpoints and "they were struggling with that."

What changed?

Hammond and nearly a dozen other American military officers said in a series of Associated Press interviews this past week that the key was the Iraqis' sudden and largely unexpected leap into hard battle in Basra in March, followed by offensives in the northern city of Mosul and the Sadr City section of Baghdad ending in May.

The Iraqi army faltered initially in the Basra offensive, but the outcome seemed transformative for the Iraqis.

Well of course. From what I have read, all the training in the world is less important than the experience of actual combat, both in learning how to do what needs to be done, and in creating confidence that you can do it. In that respect, it is no different from a lot of other activities that we train to do--but actually doing it matters more than all the training. Think of the time you spent in driving simulators (which we used a lot when I was in high school), compared to your first actual time behind the wheel.

I don't doubt that there is a real danger that at some point, Iraqi military leaders might decide that they know what they are doing more than the Iraqi Parliament. It wouldn't be the first time that this has happened--not even the first time in Iraq.

There was a whole generation of Americans who don't understand why George Washington was a hero to several generations of Americans--to the point that all sorts of juvenile stories were popular about him--such as admitting that he chopped the cherry tree. At least part of what made the American Revolution so remarkable was that George Washington made a very conscious decision to emulate the Roman general Cincinnatus--who could have made himself a king after defeating Rome's enemies, but chose to return to his farm.

That concept--the general who recognizes that civilian authority is paramount--is part of why our Revolution didn't go down the tubes like many others have done so in history. That's what made Washington great. And that's why when historians like Parson Weems tried to convey this difficult concept to kids, they went for oversimplified myths.

Does Iraq have a George Washington? Someone who, if the opportunity presents itself, will tell his underlings what Washington told the officers who wanted to march on the Continental Congress in 1783 and demand their back pay? I hope so. There's much to disrespect about the Iraqi Parliament (although it doesn't seem to be quite as bad as our Congress), but military rule has its own even worse set of problems.

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Balancing Big Bertha 2.0

Getting a telescope on an equatorial mount balanced is a bit of an operation--and I have not been completely happy with my efforts so far. One side effect of being unbalanced is that the motors just don't have enough power to move the telescope in either axis if they are unbalanced. You can disguise the lack of balance by tightening down the locks on both axes of the mount, but the motors still won't have enough power--especially when the telescope is up at the upper limits of the mount's capacity, as is the case with Big Bertha 2.0 and this Celestron CI-700 mount.

Balancing a telescope on a CI-700 mount involves loosening two clamps and moving the telescope back and forth--but that's harder than it sounds when the tube assembly weighs 55 pounds, and is 6 1/2 feet long. Even worse, when you replace a light eyepiece with a heavy eyepiece, or worse, a camera, the balance changes--again.

A common solution to this problem is to put a balance adjustment weight on a bar that you can move back and forth. I found a somewhat simpler solution. I took two pieces of scrap black nylon, cut them so that they were a bit wider than the bottom rail of Big Bertha, then used a 3/8" end mill to make two slots in each so that they would slide up and down on the bottom rail.


Click to enlarge


Sorry it is such a lousy picture--flash was too bright, and without the exposure dragged on too long.

And here's a full picture of it.


Click to enlarge

I had originally thought of using aluminum or Delrin, but the nylon has the advantage of:

1. It is scrap that cost me almost nothing.

2. Easy to cut and machine.

3. Because of its flexibility (even relative to Delrin), I didn't need to add a fastener to hold it on the rail. It is a friction fit, and I can move it back and forth with a wave of my hand.

I still think the CI-700 mount is too small for Big Bertha 2.0, but at least it tracks objects across the sky okay now. My big problem now is wind, which tends to whip it around a bit. There's less wind on the south side of the house--but perhaps a wind screen or a heavier mount makes sense. Unfortunately, from CI-700 size mounts to the next step up--the Losmandy Titan--is a leap of enormous size. (The Titan mount lists for $6000--far more than I can justify until I get the spare house in Boise sold, and even then, that's a lot of money.)

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This Almost Makes Day

The McCain/Obama contest is all tied up right now. According to the July 13, 2008 Rasmussen Report:
For the second straight day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that the race for the White House is tied. Sunday’s numbers show Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 43% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, the two candidates are tied at 46%. For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points. It will take a few more days to determine whether this recent tightening of the race reflects real change or is merely statistical noise. (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).
There are a couple of ways of looking at this.

1. McCain is an uninspiring candidate, but Obama's recent flip-flops (reminiscent of how McGovern tried to tack to the center during the general election in 1972, after appealing to the radical wing of the party in the primaries) have disappointed the hard left of the electorate, and taken some of the pixie dust out of the eyes of the idealists who deluded themselves that Obama wasn't just another politician. (Do you remember the 1972 Nixon campaign ad that showed McGovern's picture on a windvane? They would quote McGovern from the primaries, then flip the picture around to face the other direction, and show what McGovern had said most recently. It was devastating.)

2. McCain is sufficiently far to the middle of the American political spectrum that a lot of moderates who would otherwise not consider voting for a Republican who supported the social conservative agenda have decided that McCain's foreign policy experience--and Obama's nearly inconsequential experience in foreign affairs--means that they will vote for McCain.

And in the promises, promises category, the July 11, 2008 Irish Times quotes Robert Redford about the results if Obama loses:
IF BARACK Obama doesn't win November's presidential election in the United States, "you can kiss the Democratic Party goodbye", the actor and director Robert Redford told an audience in Dublin last night.
If only that were the case! Perhaps what Redford means is that he and the rest of the multimillionaire and billionaire hard left wing of the Democratic Party will pick up their substantial marbles and go home for an election or two, before finding another hard left candidate over whom they can swoon, and then do the lemmings off the cliff stunt again.

Here's the bad news for Redford and friends: only about 2% of Americans are rich enough to be Michael Moore/George Soros/Laurie David/George Clooney type of radical left Democrats. This crowd has a lot of influence on (my guess) another 20-25% of Americans, generally people that fancy themselves intellectuals or sophisticates because they look down their nose at country music, NASCAR, Christianity (except in its most liberal and largely empty forms), and patriotism. But that's not enough to consistently win national elections--just as social conservatives aren't a large enough fraction of Americans to consistently win national elections.

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I Attended A Military Funeral Friday

I'm quite sure that I have not ever attended one before. Of course, I've seen them in movies and on television news--but this is the first one that I have ever attended.

The husband of a friend of my wife served our country in Kosovo, in both Iraq wars, and in the Afghanistan war. She always worried that he would go off on a combat mission and not come home. He finally retired from the Air Force, took a nice safe job flying cargo...and died in a recreational plane crash. It's quite ironic--like Francis Gary Powers, the U-2 pilot shot down over the Soviet Union...dying in a traffic reporter helicopter crash in Los Angeles.

It was both sad (he was younger than me) and impressive in its pomp and ceremony, with four fighter planes flying overhead in the "missing man" maneuver. Walking through the Idaho Veterans' Cemetery, looking down at the grave markers, it was hard not to reflect on the enormous number of people that have served our country in uniform, and how many of them did their duty, came home, and got on with their lives.

Life is short. Don't waste it. Live every moment with your family as though you might not be here next week--because it could easily happen.